The latest storm/low pressure forecast bulletin from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that at 2:00 a.m. on October 20, low pressure area 10c was at about 13.9 degrees north latitude, 137.1 degrees east longitude, 1,395 km east of southeast Luzon.
According to PAGASA's storm forecast, the low pressure is currently likely to develop into a storm in the next 24 hours.
PAGASA weather forecaster Ana Clauren-Jorda said the low pressure could move deep into the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) on October 20 or 21 and strengthen into a storm. The next storm in the Philippines will be locally named Kristine.
In the storm/low pressure warning bulletin on October 18, PAGASA forecasts two low pressure areas near the Philippines during the week of October 18-24, 2024, including low pressure 10c expected to move close to eastern Luzon. The remaining low pressure is expected to form east of the Philippine typhoon information area (TCID) and is likely to strengthen into a typhoon.
During the week of October 25-31, 2024, PAGASA's forecast models also show that the two low pressure areas continue to operate. Low pressure 10c continues to move north - north of Luzon with the high possibility of strengthening into a storm. Meanwhile, the remaining low pressure is expected to move mainly northwest and has the potential to strengthen into a low to moderate storm.
Meanwhile, according to the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, during the period from October 21-22, a tropical convergence zone is likely to form in the East Sea. Tropical cyclones may appear on this tropical convergence zone.
By October 23-25, this tropical cyclone is likely to strengthen into a storm/tropical depression and operate in the East Sea area.
On October 20, due to the influence of cold air moving eastward, the northeast wind in the northern East Sea is gradually becoming stronger.
In the western sea area of the northern East Sea (including the Hoang Sa archipelago), the area between the East Sea, the southern East Sea (including the Truong Sa archipelago), the sea area from Quang Ngai to Khanh Hoa, from Ca Mau to Kien Giang and the Gulf of Thailand, there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Day and night on October 21, the northern East Sea area, including the Hoang Sa archipelago, will have strong northeast winds of level 6, the eastern sea will have winds of level 7, gusting to level 8-9; rough seas, waves 3-5m high. The risk level of natural disasters due to strong winds at sea is level 2. All ships operating in the above areas are at high risk of being affected by tornadoes, strong winds and big waves.
