The latest storm/low pressure forecast bulletin from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that at 2:00 a.m. on October 19, low pressure area 10c was at about 15.3 degrees north latitude, 135.2 degrees east longitude, entering the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR), 1,455 km east of southeast Luzon.
According to PAGASA's storm forecast, the low pressure area currently has a "moderate chance" of developing into a tropical depression within the next 24 to 48 hours.
PAGASA weather forecaster Ana Clauren-Jorda said the depression could penetrate deep into the PAR on October 20 or 21 and strengthen into a storm. The next storm in the Philippines will be locally named Kristine.
Also related to Depression 10c - called 94W by the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the JTWC's October 19 forecast said that the depression is currently located in the middle of the Philippine Sea, north-northeast of Palau and is producing relatively limited showers.
This low pressure area is currently in the process of merging with a larger low pressure area to its east. When the two systems merge, environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for further development, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression on October 20 or 21 as it moves erratically west-southwestward before turning west-northwestward early next week.
Currently, there are two scenarios forecast: the low pressure crosses Central Luzon towards the East Sea or moves northwest to east of Taiwan (China).
The JTWC recommends that affected areas in the Philippines, especially in northeastern Luzon, as well as southern Taiwan (China), should closely monitor the progress of this system. The JTWC assessed the chance of the low pressure intensifying over the next 7 days as up to 70%.
Meanwhile, Windy.com's forecast model shows that around October 23, the tropical depression may become a storm, approaching Quezon City in the Philippines.
Currently, on October 19, the tropical convergence zone is affecting Mindanao, causing rain and thunderstorms, which could lead to flash floods and landslides.
The Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that around October 21-22, there is a high possibility of a tropical convergence zone forming in the central East Sea.
This tropical convergence zone could develop into tropical cyclones. Therefore, from October 23 to 25, there is a high possibility of tropical depression or storm activity in the East Sea.
According to the Typhoon page on the Northwest Pacific, the development of tropical cyclones in the East Sea (if any) will be extremely complicated in terms of intensity and direction of movement, due to the possibility of interacting with another storm off the coast of the Philippines in the period of October 23-24 onwards, and the northeast wind zone operating in the East Sea area. The worst scenario is that the storm quickly moves and heads towards the sea areas of the Central and South Central provinces of Vietnam.
