A recent poll by The New York Times published on August 10 shows that US Vice President Kamala Harris is leading significantly former US President Donald Trump in the states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
However, the data from the poll suggests that the actual election may be much closer.
Conducted by the Siena College Research Institute, the survey of nearly 2,000 potential voters shows that Mrs. Harris defeated Mr. Trump with a 50% to 46% margin in all three states.
The poll was conducted from August 5 to 9, during the week Mrs. Harris announced Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan have a tradition of voting for the Democratic Party from 1992 to 2016, when Mr. Donald Trump defied most polls to win in all three states.
President Joe Biden managed to turn the tables in these states in 2020, but with a narrow margin.
For both Mrs. Harris and Mr. Trump, winning in Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes, or a total of 25 electoral votes in Michigan and Wisconsin, is essential to win the US Presidential Election 2024 in November.
Although the poll shows Mrs. Harris is on track to win decisively in all three states, when considering the methodology of the poll, it is possible that the Democratic Party's lead may not be certain.
For example, 45% of those polled in Michigan voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, while 39% chose Mr. Trump. In reality, Mr. Biden won Michigan with a margin of less than 3 points, rather than 6 points as the poll suggests.
A similar discrepancy can be seen in Pennsylvania, where the poll shows Mr. Biden won the state with a 5-point margin in 2020, compared to 1.2 points in reality, and in Wisconsin, where the poll shows Mr. Biden won with an 8-point margin, instead of 0.6 points.
If we take into account this over-sampling of the Democratic Party, Mrs. Harris and Mr. Trump are statistically tied in all three states.
However, regardless of the outcome, this election poll is one of many that show Mrs. Harris is closely chasing Mr. Trump. According to the average margin of several polls compiled by RealClearPolitics, Mrs. Harris is currently leading Mr. Trump nationwide by 0.5%. On the other hand, Mr. Trump is leading Mr. Biden by around 3 points just before the President suspended his re-election campaign last month.
Although she has not announced any policy positions and has not received any questions from journalists since announcing her campaign, Mrs. Harris has received a surge in support to 48%, up from 36% in February, according to previous polls by The New York Times/Siena. Mr. Trump's level of support is currently 46%, up from 44% in February.
