After a technical correction that caused the world gold price to retreat to around the threshold of 4,000 USD/ounce, the world's leading financial institutions still maintain an optimistic view.
Despite pressure from a strong US dollar and a prolonged high interest rate policy by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), gold prices are expected to soon regain their upward momentum, even heading towards unprecedented highs in 2026.
Analysts believe that the world gold price falling about 11% from the peak of 4,381 USD/ounce to around the current level above and below 4,000 USD/ounce is a natural correction of a long-term uptrend, not a reflection of fundamental weakness factors.
The latest report from UBS Bank (Sweden) emphasizes that "the current pullback is only temporary" and gold is still on the path to 4,200 USD/ounce in the short term, with the scenario of expanding to 4,700 USD/ounce if geopolitical risks increase.
UBS strategist Sagar Khandelwal believes that lower real interest rates, a weaker US dollar and increased public debt will be a catalyst to take gold prices further in 2026.
The US bank Goldman Sachs is even more daring, forecasting a potential peak of 5,055 USD/ounce by the end of 2026, equivalent to an increase of more than 25% compared to the present.
Meanwhile, Bank of America (USA) and Societe Generale (France) both believe that gold prices could surpass the 5,000 USD/ounce mark, especially as safe-haven demand and net buying from central banks continue to increase strongly.
ING Bank (Netherlands) added a long-term perspective: Although prices have adjusted, macro factors still support the upward trend next year. Central bank demand for gold, along with the possibility of the Fed starting to cut interest rates in the first quarter of 2026, will stimulate capital flows back.
ING expects gold prices to average $4,000/ounce in the fourth quarter of 2025, increase to $4,100/ounce in the first quarter of 2026, and may expand the increase range in the second half of the year.
From a technical perspective, gold has found a strong support zone around $3,800 - $3,900/ounce, corresponding to the 50-day EMA moving average. If this zone is maintained, the uptrend could extend with a short-term target of $4,200 and a medium-term of $5,000 - $5,600/ounce, corresponding to a Fibonacci expansion of 161.8% - a figure analysts consider the " maximum technical level" of the current growth cycle.
In addition to technical factors, investors also note that central banks are buying nearly 760 tons of gold per year, nearly double the average before 2022. Along with the return of ETF capital to the market, this is a long-term support that helps gold prices maintain their upward momentum despite short-term fluctuations.
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