The meteorite named 2024 YR4, a building-sized cosmic rock block that has caused scientists to worry about the possibility of colliding with Earth, is currently out of reach of the Galaxy's sight. However, its latest trajectory is paying attention to another goal: the Moon.
Initially, when discovered at the end of 2024, the meteorite appeared to be on track to collide with Earth on December 22, 2032 with a probability of up to 3.1% - making it the most risky meteorite ever observed. Fortunately, more accurate data later helped researchers rule out the possibility of it hitting our planet.
But the threat is not over. The latest data from NASA shows that even if it avoids the Earth, the YR4 can still cause disaster by crashing into the Moon by the end of 2032.
The YR4 meteorite is about 60m in diameter and is likely to cause great destruction if it falls to the ground. If it collides with the Moon, it will create an explosion equivalent to a nuclear weapon, creating a thien event hole about 1km wide. If it does, it will be the biggest impact on the Moon in the past 5,000 years.
Professor Paul Wiegert from Western University ( Canada) warned that this collision could launch up to 100 million kg of rock and soil from the surface of the Moon. The debris, moving at a fastper bullet speed, could fly toward Earth.
Although the atmosphere will protect people on Earth from small pieces of debris (the size of a sand grain to a roadbed), the real danger lies in the orbit. Thousands of small debris could attack the satellite system around the Earth.
Professor Wiegert compared the satellites to having to endure the equivalent of 10 years of meteorological collisions in just a few days. This threatens to damage solar panels and sensitive components, causing temporary disruptions to positioning systems (GPS), telecommunications and other important spatial infrastructure that modern life depends on. Any astronaut or moon location at that time would be in great danger.
Scientists are now assessing whether to launch a thienakian deviation mission to protect the Moon. However, the decision will depend on future risk assessments when this meteorite reappears in observation around 2028.
