On July 29, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced a climate forecast for the period from August 2026 to January 2027, which forecasts that 2 to 4 tropical cyclones may form or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in August.
This is the period predicted to have the highest number of tropical cyclones in the next 6 months. According to the latest weather forecast, in September, there will be 2 to 3 tropical cyclones operating in or entering PAR. From October to December, each month can record 1 to 2 tropical cyclones, while January 2027 is expected to only have a maximum of 1 system.
In addition to forecasting the number of tropical cyclones, PAGASA also announced rainfall forecasts across the country in the coming months.
Accordingly, in August, most areas of the Philippines are forecast to have rainfall at levels close to the seasonal average. Some areas west of Luzon Island are likely to record higher than normal rainfall.
By September, rainfall on most of Luzon Island is forecast to be lower than average, while the eastern areas of Visayas and Mindanao may have higher than normal rainfall. Entering October, most areas still maintain rainfall near average, except for Luzon Island which is forecast to continue to be drier than the multi-year average.
PAGASA said that from November, widespread drought conditions may appear as many areas are forecast to record rainfall from below average to much lower than average. By December, rainfall tends to increase again in most of Luzon Island, while many areas in Visayas and Mindanao are still likely to lack rain. In January 2027, rain shortages are forecast to continue in many places across the country.
The Philippine meteorological agency also warned of the risk of drought in many localities. According to forecasts, by the end of August, some provinces may experience mild drought, while some other localities are at risk of drought if rainfall continues to remain low for a long time.
According to PAGASA, mild drought occurs when rainfall is lower than the average for 3 consecutive months or below the average for 2 consecutive months. Meanwhile, drought is defined when rainfall is lower than the average for 5 consecutive months or much lower than the average for 3 consecutive months.
Previously, the Philippine Ministry of Agriculture also warned that prolonged drought weather could affect agricultural production in many areas, reducing crop yields and putting more pressure on production if unfavorable weather conditions continue to prolong.
