CNBC reported that investors commented on July 14 that the failed assassination of former President Donald Trump on July 13 increased the possibility of him being re-elected in the 2024 US presidential election and traders bet on the war. His winnings will skyrocket next week.
Mr. Donald Trump was shot in the ear during an election campaign in Pennsylvania on the afternoon of July 13 local time, in an incident investigated by the FBI as an assassination attempt. Mr. Donald Trump was bleeding but still fine.
Before the shooting, markets reacted to the prospect of Trump winning the presidency by pushing the dollar higher and preparing for a steeper US Treasury yield curve. Those trades could strengthen next week, according to Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments in Singapore.
The first shooting of a US President or major party candidate since the failed assassination of Republican President Ronald Reagan in 1981 could upend the November 5 rematch between Republican Donald Trump and President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party. These two candidates are closely pursuing in election polls.
“Mr. Reagan jumped 22 points in the polls after the assassination,” said Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management.
World leaders and American politicians condemned the shooting, while several executives, including Tesla Chief Elon Musk, declared their support for Mr. Trump.
Since his weak showing against Mr. Trump in the presidential debate two weeks ago, Mr. Biden has faced increasing skepticism from donors, supporters and members of the Democratic Party. about his ability to defeat the former Republican President and keep up with the demands of the job.
Immigration and the economy are key issues for US voters and according to Reuters/Ipsos polls, they see Mr Trump as the better candidate for the economy.
Under Mr. Trump, market analysts expect a more hawkish trade policy, less regulation and looser climate change regulations.
Mr. Trump said in an interview in February that he would not reappoint Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, whose second four-year term as chairman will end in 2026. .
Long-term Treasury yields have risen along with the possibility of a second President Donald Trump administration.
The gap between 2-year and 30-year bonds narrowed to negative 6 basis points from negative 30 basis points around the time of the Biden-Trump debate.
“Mr. Trump always tends to be more pro-market. The important issue going forward is whether fiscal policy remains irresponsibly loose and the impact that could have on inflation and future interest rate trends. Mr. Ferres said.
Stock prices have increased. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average hit record highs on July 12, and the S&P 500 is up 18% this year.
“In about five US presidential elections in the past 20 years, CEO confidence, consumer sentiment and especially small business optimism have changed,” wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs. more favorable to Republican victories than to Democratic victories.”
“To the extent that improved sentiment leads to increased spending and investment, a Trump victory could boost the earnings outlook of some companies even without significant policy changes.” - Goldman Sachs said.
