CNBC reported that investors commented on July 14 that the failed assassination of former President Donald Trump on July 13 increased the possibility of him being re-elected in the 2024 US presidential election and traders bet on his victory to skyrocket next week.
Donald Trump was shot in the ear during an election campaign in Pennsylvania on the afternoon of July 13 local time, in an incident being investigated by the FBI as a plot to assassinate him. Donald Trump was bleeding but was fine.
Before the shooting, markets responded to the prospect of Mr. Trump being elected president by pushing the USD higher and preparing for a steeper US Treasury yield curve. Those deals could intensify next week, according to Rong Ren Goh, portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments in Singapore.
The first shooting of a US president or a major party candidate since the failed assassination attempt on Republican President Ronald Reagan in 1981 could reverse the November 5 rematch between Republican Donald Trump and Democratic President Joe Biden. These two candidates are chasing each other closely in election polls.
Mr. Green has increased his chances by 22 points in the post-assassass trial polls, said Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management.
World leaders and US politicians have condemned the shooting, while several executives, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, have vowed to support Trump.
Since his weak performance against Trump in the presidential debate two weeks ago, Mr. Biden has faced growing doubts from donors, supporters and members of the Democratic Party about his ability to defeat the former Republican President and keep up with the requirements of the job.
Immigration and the economy are key issues for US voters and, according to Reuters/Ipsos polls, they see Trump as a stronger candidate for the economy.
Under Trump, market analysts expect a haward trade policy, fewer regulations and looser climate change regulations.
Mr. Trump said in an interview in February that he would not reappoint Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell - whose second four-year presidency will end in 2026.
Long-term Treasury yields have risen along with the possibility of a second administration of President Donald Trump.
The gap between the 2-year and 30-year bonds has narrowed to a 6-point base from a 30-point base during the Biden-Trump debate.
Mr. Trump has always tended to be more pro-market. The important issue in the future is whether fiscal policy is still irresponsiblely lax and the impact of that could replace inflation as well as interest rate trends in the future, Ferres said.
Stock prices have increased. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average hit record highs on July 12 and the S&P 500 rose 18% this year.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote: In the past five US presidential elections over the past 20 years, CEO confidence, consumer sentiment and especially the optimism of small businesses have changed in a more favorable direction towards Republican victories over Democratic victories.
In the event that improved sentiment leads to increased spending and investment, Mr Trumps victory could boost the income outlook of some companies even without significant policy changes, said Goldman Sachs.
