The latest storm and depression forecast from the Philippine weather agency (PAGASA) says that from now until the end of October, there are expected to be 3 depressions forming, including 1 depression in the East Sea and near the East Sea.
The forecast bulletin updated by PAGASA at 2:00 p.m. on October 14 clearly stated that during the week from October 14 to 20, a low pressure area is expected to form in the eastern area of PAGASA's TCID and TCAD forecast areas.
This low pressure system near the Philippines is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm during the forecast period at low to moderate intensity.
In the latest storm and low pressure bulletin, PAGASA also said that there is expected to be 1 low pressure near the East Sea and 1 low pressure in the East Sea during the period from October 21 to 27.
Among them, a low pressure near the South China Sea is expected to form east of PAGASA's TCAD forecast area. This low pressure near the South China Sea has a low potential to intensify into a tropical storm but is likely to enter the Philippine forecast area (PAR).
The low pressure system in the East Sea expected to form in the fourth week of October is forecast to have little chance of strengthening into a storm.
According to PAGASA, tropical storms form over the world's oceans except the southern Atlantic and southeastern Pacific.
In the Pacific, tropical storms that form typically move slowly westward or northwestward, threatening the Philippines. Typhoons in this region typically move at an average speed of 12 mph. Meanwhile, typhoons that form in the South China Sea typically move northward or northeastward, also affecting the Philippines.
PAGASA’s September typhoon forecast predicts that there will be a possibility of 4-7 tropical storms forming within or entering the Philippine forecast area in the fourth quarter of 2024. Accordingly, 2-3 storms are expected to approach the Philippines in October, followed by 1 or 2 storms in November and December.
PAGASA Climate Forecasting and Monitoring Division Head Ana Solis noted that tropical storms tend to make landfall and sweep across the Philippines during this period. Most of the October storms hit Luzon while November and December storms are expected to mainly hit Bicol, Eastern Visayas and Eastern Mindanao.
PAGASA typhoon forecasters noted that while there is a possibility of a weak La Nina in the fourth quarter of 2024, the risk of severe storms cannot be ruled out.
"When La Nina is weak and coincides with the last quarter of the year, we see hurricanes and typhoons," she said.
The following names in the list of storm names for the 2024 Philippine storm season are: Kristine, Leon, Marce, Nika, Ofel, Pepito, Querubin.
