The latest storm and low pressure forecast from the Philippine weather agency (PAGASA) said that from now until the end of October, there are expected to be 3 low pressure areas forming, including 1 low pressure in the East Sea and near the East Sea.
The forecast bulletin updated by PAGASA at 2:00 p.m. on October 14 stated that during the week from October 14-20, a low pressure is expected to form in the eastern area of PAGASA's TCID and TCAD forecast areas.
This low pressure near the Philippines is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm during the forecast period at low to moderate levels.
In the latest storm and low pressure bulletin, PAGASA also said that it is expected that 1 low pressure near the East Sea and 1 low pressure in the East Sea will appear in the period from October 21-27.
Of which, the low pressure near the East Sea is expected to form east of PAGASA's TCAD forecast area. This low pressure near the East Sea is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm but is likely to enter the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR).
The low pressure in the East Sea expected to form in the East Sea in the fourth week of October is forecast to have little chance of strengthening into a storm.
According to PAGASA, tropical storms form in the world's oceans except the South Atlantic and the southeastern Pacific.
In the Pacific, tropical cyclones forming slowly move west or northwest, threatening the Philippines. Storms in this area often move at an average speed of 19 km/h. Meanwhile, storms that form in the South China Sea typically move north or northeast, also affecting the Philippines.
PAGASA's September storm forecast said there is a possibility of 4-7 tropical storms forming within or entering the Philippine forecast area in the fourth quarter of 2024. Accordingly, there are expected to be 2-3 typhoons near the Philippines in October followed by 1 or 2 typhoons in November and December.
PAGASA Chief of Climate Forecasting and Monitoring Ana Solis stressed that tropical cyclones tend to make landfall and sweep across the Philippines during this period. Most of the October typhoons hit Luzon while Typhoons 11 and 12 are expected to mainly hit Bicol, Eastern Visayas and Eastern Mindanao.
PAGASA forecasters note that although there is a possibility of a weak La Nina in the fourth quarter of 2024, the risk of severe storms cannot be ruled out.
"As a weak La Nina coincides with the last quarter of the year, we see typhoons of super typhoon and typhoon strength," she said.
The list of typhoon names for the 2024 typhoon season in the Philippines includes the following names: Kristine, Leon, Marce, Nika, Ofel, Pepito, Querubin.
