The new low pressure near the Philippines has been designated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as Invest 91W. This low pressure is in the Philippine Sea and has existed for about 8 hours.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's storm and low pressure forecast, this low pressure is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours. Forecast models also show that this low pressure will have relatively weak development in the next 2 days.
Meanwhile, the latest tropical depression forecast from the Philippine weather agency PAGASA updated on October 11 predicts that only 1 low pressure is likely to form near the Philippines during the week of October 18-24.
Forecast, during the week of October 11-17, weather forecasters see little chance of a low pressure forming in the PAGASA PMD forecast area.
Meanwhile, a tropical depression is expected to form in the area from the east of the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) to PAGASA's TCAD forecast area during the week of October 18-24. This tropical depression is also unlikely to intensify into a tropical storm.
Therefore, in its latest typhoon forecast, PAGASA affirmed that there is no possibility of any typhoon threatening the Philippines in the next 2 weeks.
On October 7, the Philippine weather agency announced that the southwest monsoon season or habagat in the Philippines has ended.
"Recent analysis shows that the southwest monsoon has weakened significantly in the past few days. Furthermore, the high pressure system over East Asia has strengthened.... With these developments, the southwest monsoon season has officially ended," PAGASA said in a statement.
The southwest monsoon, characterized by hot and humid winds, typically lasts from June to September.
With the end of the southwest monsoon season, the weather in the Philippines is in the transition period to the northeast monsoon season or amihan.
PAGASA is expected to declare the start of the northeast monsoon season in the coming weeks.
The northeast monsoon typically lasts from October to February or March. The northeast monsoon brings cool and dry air to the Philippines and may cause rain in the eastern part of the country.
In addition, PAGASA is also monitoring the possibility of La Nina developing in the tropical Pacific. Previously, the Philippine weather agency assessed that there is a 71% chance of La Nina forming in the period from September to November 2024 and lasting until January to March 2025.
For the Philippines, La Nina could bring more rain and could lead to the formation of more typhoons.
According to data from PAGASA, there are an average of 20 tropical storms or major storms making landfall in the Philippines each year. Nearly 70% of storms form during the peak of the Philippine typhoon season from July to October.
The Philippines has recorded 10 tropical storms since the beginning of the year, according to Rappler.com.
