The new low pressure near the Philippines has been designated Invest 91W by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It is currently over the Philippine Sea and has been in existence for about eight hours.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's storm and low pressure forecast, this low pressure is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours. Forecast models also see this low pressure developing relatively weakly in the next 2 days.
Meanwhile, the latest tropical depression forecast by the Philippine weather agency PAGASA updated on October 11 predicts that only one depression is likely to form near the Philippines during the week of October 18-24.
Forecasters see little chance of low pressure forming in PAGASA's PMD forecast area for the week of October 11-17.
Meanwhile, during the week of October 18-24, a tropical depression is expected to form in the area from the eastern part of the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) to the PAGASA TCAD forecast area. This tropical depression is also unlikely to intensify into a tropical storm.
Therefore, in its latest storm forecast, PAGASA affirmed that there is no possibility of any storm threatening the Philippines within the next 2 weeks.
On October 7, the Philippine weather agency announced that the southwest monsoon season, or habagat, in the Philippines has ended.
"Recent analyses indicate that the southwest monsoon has weakened significantly over the past few days. Furthermore, the high pressure system over East Asia has strengthened…. With these developments, the southwest monsoon season has officially ended," PAGASA said in a statement.
The southwest monsoon, characterized by hot, humid winds, typically lasts from June to September.
With the southwest monsoon season ending, the weather in the Philippines is transitioning into the northeast monsoon season or amihan.
PAGASA is expected to declare the start of the northeast monsoon season in the coming weeks.
The northeast monsoon usually lasts from October to February or March. The northeast monsoon brings cool, dry air to the Philippines and can cause rain in the eastern part of the country.
In addition, PAGASA is also monitoring the possibility of La Nina developing in the tropical Pacific. Previously, the Philippine weather agency assessed that there is a 71% chance of La Nina forming in the period from September to November 2024 and lasting until January to March 2025.
For the Philippines, La Nina could bring more rain and could lead to more typhoons forming.
According to data from PAGASA, an average of 20 tropical storms or typhoons make landfall in the Philippines each year. Nearly 70 percent of these storms form during the peak of the Philippine typhoon season from July to October.
Since the beginning of the year, the Philippines has recorded 10 tropical storms, according to Rappler.com.
