The latest storm and low pressure forecast from the Philippine weather agency PAGASA said that from now until the end of October, many low pressure areas will appear near the Philippines, including low pressure areas that are likely to enter the East Sea and strengthen into storms.
The storm and low pressure forecast released by PAGASA on October 18 clearly states that there are 2 low pressure areas that are likely to develop during the forecast period until October 31.
Philippine weather forecasters say that low pressure areas near the Philippines are expected to form east of PAGASA's PMD forecast area.
The first low pressure near the Philippines is likely to develop during the week of October 18-24 in the eastern part of the PAR and TCAD forecast areas (photo). This low pressure is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm and enter the PAR before moving to the east of Luzon, Philippines.
This low pressure near the Philippines is forecast to move towards northern Luzon, Philippines during the week of October 25-31, and is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm.
The second low pressure near the Philippines is forecast to form east of the PAGASA TCID forecast area boundary during the week of October 18-24. This low pressure is expected to have a low to moderate chance of becoming a storm near the Philippines.
In the week of October 25-31, the second low pressure near the Philippines is expected to gradually move northwest, towards the northeast of the TCAD forecast area. Philippine typhoon forecasters say that at this stage, this low pressure is likely to strengthen into a low to moderate storm.
In the forecast for the fourth quarter of the 2024 typhoon season, PAGASA said that there is a possibility of 4-7 typhoons forming within or entering the Philippine PAR forecast area. Of these, two or three are forecast to occur in October, one or two in November and December.
According to PAGASA Chief of Climate Forecasting and Monitoring Ana Solis, tropical cyclones tend to make landfall and sweep across the Philippines during this period. Most typhoons in October hit Luzon while typhoons in November and December mainly hit Bicol, Eastern Visayas and Eastern Mindanao.
The next storm names for the 2024 Philippine typhoon season on PAGASA's list include Kristine, Leon, Marce, Nika, Ofel, Pepito, Querubin.
The most recent storm to strengthen from the low pressure near the Philippines is Julian (international name Krathon), which formed on September 27. By September 29, Tropical Depression Julian had strengthened into a severe tropical storm, threatening Batanes and the Babuyan Islands of the Philippines. After making a strong impact in the Philippines, Krathon strengthened into a super typhoon on October 1 and left the Philippine forecast area. The typhoon then made landfall in Taiwan (China) on October 3.
