ABC News' latest hurricane report says temperatures could start to drop as fall begins, but the Atlantic hurricane season is over.
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season has passed, but there is still the possibility of strong storms forming before the hurricane season ends on November 30, and storms may even continue to appear after the hurricane season has passed.
There are currently two depressions being closely monitored in the Atlantic. According to the latest forecast, neither of these depressions will strengthen into a major hurricane that threatens the US mainland.
The forecast says the low pressure in the western Caribbean has a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression by the end of the week. Therefore, there is a possibility of heavy rain this weekend in Central America and some areas on the Yucatan Peninsula.
The second low pressure in the mid- Atlantic has a 40% chance of strengthening into a tropical depression or storm on October 18 and could bring heavy rain and gusts to the northern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico.
However, neither system is expected to strengthen enough to become Nadine - the next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, forecaster Marshall Shepherd - director of the Atmospheric Science Program at the University of Georgia, former president of the American Meteorological Society, told ABC News.
Atmospheric scientist Jennifer Francis at the Woodwell Climate Research Center pointed out that wind shear from a cold front (the front edge of a cold, dry air mass) in the eastern United States is blocking the development of tropical cyclones in the south.
"This cold air mass tends to prevent the formation of storms and can tear them up," she said.
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season will be on September 10, but the busiest of the season will follow, with Helene forming on September 24 and Milton on October 5. Both of these strong storms made landfall on the west coast of Florida.
The chance of a hurricane forming after this time of year is below 5% and if it does, it is likely to make landfall in Florida, Shepherd said. Meanwhile, Ms. Francis said that storms and tropical depressions developing in November tend to be more concentrated in the western tropical Atlantic, including the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
However, record-warm ocean temperatures could increase the likelihood of a tropical storm forming, forecaster Francis noted. The weather expert said that temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are "all rising". "So any storm that forms will have enough fuel to get from the ocean," she said.
The 2024 hurricane season is forecast to be positive for the next 7 to 10 days, but conditions for a tropical storm to strengthen will be more favorable by the end of October due to changes in upper-level winds, Ms. Francis said.
Although rare, data shows that storms may form beyond the traditional hurricane season. In December 2005, Typhoon Epsilon and Tropical Storm Zeta formed in the Atlantic basin after the official hurricane season ended. Hurricane Alex in 2016 was an "unusual" tropical storm that formed in January.
