The latest storm/low pressure forecast bulletin from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that at 2:00 a.m. on October 18, the cloud cluster outside the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) developed into low pressure area 10c.
The center of the low pressure is located at about 12.8 degrees north latitude, 144.2 degrees east longitude, about 2,020km east of Eastern Visayas. The possibility of low pressure area 10c developing into a tropical depression in the next 24 hours is low.
Meanwhile, the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is monitoring Depression 93W. According to the JTWC, this large low pressure area located southeast of Guam (USA) - formerly a small low pressure area - continues to create a large area with unorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The low pressure area interacts with another developing low pressure area in its west-northwest (94W or 10c as PAGASA calls it) and cannot predict significant development before joining the new low pressure area.
According to the JTWC, Depression 94W is west-northwest of Guam, on the other side of the Mariana Islands. Low pressure 94W is forecast to merge with 93W to form a major disturbance over the Philippine Sea in the next few days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for the development of this system and a tropical depression is likely to form on October 21 as the system moves mainly west-northwest. The chance of the tropical depression developing in the next 7 days is up to 70%.
The third depression (B) is forecast to form along the weakening shear line east of Guam early next week.
The system is likely to develop gradually as it moves slowly and erratically northeastward, and a tropical depression could form in the middle of the week as the system remains far from inland areas with residents. The JTWC assesses the 7-day development plan as an average of 40%.
