In the latest report, experts from the leading Swiss financial group UBS believe that gold prices may increase significantly in the near future, even heading towards the 5,900 - 6,200 USD/ounce zone by the end of 2026, if macroeconomic factors continue to support.
According to Mr. Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS, gold will have a chance to increase sharply when two conditions appear together: geopolitical instability remaining at a high level and expectations of gradually decreasing interest rates. This is seen as a familiar "formula" to boost demand for precious metals.
Notably, despite increasing tensions in the Middle East, gold prices are still about 13% lower than the historical peak set in January this year. This shows that the "safe haven" role of gold in the short term is no longer as clear as before.
Part of the reason comes from the strengthening of the USD and concerns about interest rates remaining high, making gold - an unprofitable asset - less attractive in the eyes of investors.
In fact, this development is not new. In previous conflict periods, gold prices often increased sharply at the beginning but then adjusted when monetary policy tightened.
Not only gold, many other commodities are also benefiting from the market context. According to UBS, the aggregate commodity index has increased by about 17% since the beginning of the year, while Brent oil prices rose sharply from about 72 USD to more than 100 USD/barrel after the Iran war broke out.
The main reason comes from the supply-demand imbalance, especially when energy inventories in many economies are low. This may force prices to rise higher to cool down demand before supply is replenished.
According to UBS experts, gold not only responds to conflicts and wars but also plays an important role in hedging against macroeconomic risks, such as inflation, currency devaluation or slowing growth.
Long-term data shows that gold prices are often positively correlated with inflation. In the context of increasing global public debt and central banks diversifying reserves, demand for gold is expected to remain stable.
In addition, physical gold demand - especially from Asia - along with the buying activities of central banks continues to be the foundation to support the market.
UBS believes that in the short term, gold prices may still be under pressure if interest rates remain high. However, in the medium and long term, the outlook is still positive if the interest rate environment reverses and geopolitical risks have not cooled down.
However, experts also note that gold often fluctuates cyclically and is simultaneously affected by many factors, so the upward trend - if it occurs - may not occur in a straight line.
World gold price at 6 pm on April 15 traded at 4,805.09 USD/ounce.
Regarding domestic gold prices in the Vietnamese market, SJC gold bar prices and Bao Tin Minh Chau 9999 gold ring prices are both traded at 170 - 173 million VND/tael (buying - selling).
