On August 22, according to the latest weather reports from the meteorological agencies of Japan, the Philippines and the United States, Typhoon Saudel is entering a phase of rapid intensification as favorable environmental conditions for the system continue to strengthen. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) currently ranks Saudel as a strong tropical storm, while analysis by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) shows that the system has reached typhoon level according to the US classification scale.
As of 2:00 AM on August 22 (Philippines time), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) determined that Saudel had maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h and central pressure of 970 hPa. PAGASA recorded winds of 130 km/h, while JTWC estimated winds reaching 150 km/h, equivalent to a US-level Category 1 hurricane.
The latest satellite image shows that dense clouds around the storm's center are forming clearly. However, due to the lack of microwave monitoring data in about 15 hours, forecasters cannot be sure whether Saudel has formed a complete inner core or not.
According to the JTWC intensity forecast, Saudel is likely to continue to strengthen rapidly in the coming days. This system can reach the category of strong typhoon, with sustained winds from 96 knots, equivalent to about 178 km/h, or more. After that, Saudel is forecast to be able to reach the category of super typhoon on the US scale, with winds from 130 knots, equivalent to about 240 km/h.
Independent monitoring data also shows that Saudel is in an increasing intensity trend. The Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts that the storm will continue to strengthen on August 22, while JTWC monitoring data shows that intensity may continue to increase as the system moves northwest.
Regarding the direction of movement, Saudel is expected to continue to move northwest for about 12 hours, before switching to west-northwest and moving slower over the Philippine Sea area.
According to information provided, Saudel is likely to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on the evening of August 23 with typhoon intensity. If this scenario occurs, PAGASA will name the system locally Obet. After that, Saudel is forecast to leave PAR in about 6-12 hours, in the early morning of August 24.
Currently, Typhoon Saudel is still outside PAR. PAGASA in its August 21st bulletin determined that the storm's center is about 2,735km southeast of Luzon and is moving in a north-northwest direction.
In the Northern Mariana region, US officials issued weather warnings for several islands as Saudel continued to move northwest. The US National Weather Service said the storm is passing through eastern Guam and heading north of the Mariana Islands.
