On August 20, tropical storm Saudel is forecast to strengthen rapidly from tonight and is likely to strengthen into a major storm by the weekend.
As of 0:00 UTC on August 20 (Manila time, Philippines), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) determined that Saudel had winds of 75 km/h, atmospheric pressure of 996 hPa, equivalent to tropical storm level. The latest weather forecast from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) also recorded winds of 75 km/h. Meanwhile, the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) recorded winds of 65 km/h and pressure of 999 hPa.
Currently, Typhoon Saudel has not yet developed stably due to the asymmetrical convection structure, while the storm's eye is still prolonged and not clearly organized. However, from the night of August 20, atmospheric conditions are assessed to be very favorable, which may help the system strengthen rapidly when moving northwest towards the central region of Micronesia.
The US National Weather Service in Guam has issued a storm warning for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan islands in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. According to the warning, this area may experience winds of 120 km/h or more within 48 hours.
JMA forecasts that Saudel will strengthen into a severe tropical storm on August 20 and reach typhoon level on August 21. Meanwhile, the JTWC predicts that the system may reach large typhoon intensity on the US classification scale on August 22, with sustained winds of 178 km/h or more.
Typhoon Saudel is also likely to enter the northeast of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), stay in the area for a short time and then leave after a few hours.
However, PAGASA noted that the storm may strengthen the southwest monsoon (Habagat) next week, causing another widespread heavy rain in areas west of Luzon Island of the Philippines.
People on the islands of Okinawa are advised to closely monitor updates from the JMA. Saudel could become the second major storm to affect the area this year, after Hurricane Dolphin.
