According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the United States, low pressure 91W is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
At 6:00 a.m. on October 13, the strongest wind near the center of the low pressure was about 30-35 km/h. The estimated minimum sea level pressure is nearly 1008 hPa.
Infrared images show a slow-moving circulation center at the lower floor, with a convective flare in the north, which has lasted for the past 12 hours.
Satellite images from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) collected from advanced scatteratteratter measuring devices (ASCAT Met Op-B) show winds of 30 km/h in the north, below the above-mentioned convection and weaker winds (under 18.5 km/h) in the south.
Analysis shows favorable peripheral conditions with low to moderate wind shear (28-37 km/h), weak equatorial wind flow at high altitudes and warm sea surface temperatures (30°C).
According to current storm forecast models, identification and synthesis show that in the next 48 hours, the low pressure is unlikely to develop further.
In the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) typhoon/low pressure forecast bulletin dated October 13, no low pressure will form within the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) from now until October 17.
However, during the week of October 18-24, there is a possibility of a low pressure appearing east of the forecast area (PAR), with the possibility of the low strengthening into a storm.
Previously, PAGASA forecasted that 4 to 7 storms will form within or enter PAR in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Two or three storms are expected in October and one or two in November and December.
Most typhoons in October hit Luzon while typhoons in November and December mainly hit Bicol, Eastern Visayas and Eastern Mindanao.
PAGASA is also monitoring the possibility of La Nina developing in the tropical Pacific. PAGASA previously said there was a 50% chance of La Nina forming in September-November 2024 and is likely to last until January-February 2025.
For the Philippines, La Nina could bring more rain and more typhoons. The Philippines has been affected by 10 typhoons in the 2024 typhoon season so far.
