According to the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), low pressure 91W has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
At 6:00 a.m. on October 13, the strongest wind near the center of the low pressure was about 30-35 km/h. The estimated minimum sea level pressure was nearly 1008 hPa.
Infrared imagery shows a slow organizing low-level circulation center, with a convective outbreak to the north, that has persisted over the past 12 hours.
Satellite imagery from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) collected from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT MetOp-B) data shows winds of 30 km/h to the north, below the aforementioned convection, and weaker winds (below 18.5 km/h) to the south.
Analysis showed marginally favorable conditions with low to moderate wind shear (28-37 km/h), weak equatorial winds aloft and warm sea surface temperatures (30°C).
According to current storm forecast models, identification and synthesis show that in the next 48 hours, the low pressure is unlikely to develop further.
In the storm/low pressure forecast bulletin of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on October 13, no low pressure areas are expected to form within the Philippine forecast areas (PAR) from now until October 17.
However, during the week from October 18-24, there is a possibility of a low pressure area appearing in the east of the forecast area (PAR), with the possibility of the low strengthening into a storm.
Previously, PAGASA forecasted four to seven storms to form within or enter PAR in the fourth quarter of 2024.
2 or 3 storms are forecast in October and 1 or 2 storms in November and December.
Most of the typhoons in October make landfall in Luzon while those in November and December mainly hit Bicol, Eastern Visayas and Eastern Mindanao.
PAGASA is also monitoring the possibility of La Nina developing in the tropical Pacific. PAGASA previously said there is a 71% chance of La Nina forming in September-November 2024 and potentially lasting until January-March 2025.
For the Philippines, La Nina could bring more rain and more storms. The Philippines has been hit by 10 storms so far in the 2024 typhoon season.
