For now, Colorado State University CSU meteorologists are forecasting a 50% chance of normal storm activity in the Atlantic basin in the last two weeks of October, a 40% chance of near-normal activity and a 10% chance of below-normal activity.
However, there is still a bright spot. The "normal" second half of October is typically less intense than late August to early October, the traditional peak of the typhoon season. The sun's radiance is lower, causing the water to cool slightly, meaning less fuel for the storm.
However, there are still hotwaters in the Atlantic basin, and the hurricane season runs through late November.
CSU's two-week forecast has proven correct, predicting with "nearly absolute certainty" that the season will operate above normal from October 1 to 14. It was during this time that both Hurricanes Helene and Milton devastated Florida and the southeastern United States.
The first two weeks of October with Milton, Kirk and Leslie created the third-largest accumulated energy (ACE) for any two-week period, behind only 1893 and 2016.
To predict the next two weeks of storms, meteorologists use ACE, the strength and longevity of storms over a given period of time.
CSU compared the expected ACE in the last two weeks of October to the normal ACE from the same monthly period from 1966-2023.
To predict ACE, they looked at current storms, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) hurricane forecast, and many other global models.
There is currently a low-pressure system in the Atlantic Ocean with a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm as it heads toward the Caribbean. If the storm turns north, away from land, it could actually last longer and generate more ACEs.
Forecasters are also paying attention to another system in the western Caribbean, near Belize, with a 30% chance of development. CSU says the system is likely to generate only a small amount of ACE.
CSU is also considering Madden-Julian fluctuations (MJO) - the weather pattern that moves around the planet, enhancing thunderstorms or calm weather. In the second half of October, the MJO will be in the western Pacific, typically weakening hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
But CSU said Caribbean wind shear looks set to be lower than normal over the next two weeks, which could increase hurricane formation in the Caribbean.
Regarding storm forecasts in the East Sea, international weather forecast models (GFS of the US, ECMWF AI of Europe) are making complex forecasts about weather patterns causing heavy rain and the possibility of storms operating at the same time.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that during the week of October 16-22, 2024, a low pressure area near the East Sea is expected to appear in the west of the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR). The low pressure is unlikely to strengthen.
From October 25-26 onwards, the eastern Philippines and the East Sea are likely to experience tropical cyclones.
