According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to return to average levels by April to June 2025, with a 70% probability for a neutral ENSO period - meaning no El Nino or La Nina phenomenon completely dominates global weather.
The weather forecast for April shows a hot and unstable trend. Although La Nina tends to cool global temperatures, the latest data shows that this reduction is not strong enough to prevent the warming trend caused by climate change.
In fact, January 2025 was recorded as the hottest January in history, despite the presence of La Nina. This raises concerns that the upcoming summer temperatures will continue to break records, especially around April to June.
In Southeast Asia, Thailand is expected to record the highest temperature of up to 43 degrees Celsius between late March and mid-April. Summer storms are also expected to appear more often, making the weather erratic.
Meanwhile, in Europe, forecast models show a clear differentiation in the weather. The Western and Northwestern regions of Europe will have more rain than usual, due to the appearance of a low pressure. In contrast, in Eastern Europe, the formation of high pressure areas will cause temperatures to increase, creating heat waves lasting from late spring to summer.
In North America, especially the US and Canada, weather trends will depend largely on fluctuations in thejet stream. However, meteorologists warn that temperatures in most of the land will be above average, despite signs of cooling Pacific Ocean waters. This is especially worrying as the summer enters, as prolonged heat waves and droughts could occur in the southern states of the US.
Traditionally, La Nina often brings cooler climates to some parts of the world. However, this impact is increasingly overshadowed by climate change phenomena, causing extreme weather phenomena to occur at higher frequency.
La Nina can also cause instability during the rainy season, causing tropical storms to strengthen or move on unusual trajectories. This could directly affect coastal countries in the Caribbean, Southeast Asia and the West Pacific.
The weather from April to May is expected to change dramatically due to the shift of pressure systems.
In Asia, while India and China continue to experience prolonged hot weather, Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines will face unseasonal rains and erratic weather.
Long-term climate models suggest that the summer of 2025 could be hotter than average in most parts of the world. Heat waves may occur with stronger intensity and last longer, especially in the Middle East, North America, Europe and Asia.
