The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that during the week from March 10 to March 16 and the week from March 17 to 23, no low pressure or storm is expected to appear in the East Sea, as well as near the Philippines.
Meanwhile, global forecast models are starting to give initial signs of storm activity in the northern hemisphere oceans.
According to the latest hurricane forecast from the European Center formediate-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Atlantic region is likely to experience a moderate to approximately moderate 2025 hurricane season.
The forecast shows that the total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of the 2025 typhoon season will reach about 90% of the average level as of September. If true, the number of tropical cyclones is expected to fall into about 12 named storms, including five strong storms and possibly a few super typhoons. However, there is no sign that an especially intense hurricane season is about to occur.
The three largest oceans show no signs of change. Not only in the Atlantic, but also in the Western Pacific and Eastern Pacific, the hurricane season is forecast to have normal activity or below average through September. This means there are no signs of a record year of storms in the entire Northern Hemisphere.
According to storm expert Philip Klotzbach from Colorado State University, this forecast could be related to two main factors: Average sea surface temperatures and ENSO remain neutral.
A neutral ENSO means that there will be no strong El Nino or La Nina climate control, making the forecast more unpredictable. This is an important factor that could impact storm intensity in the coming months.
Last year's ECMWF model predicted an extremely strong season with ACEs of up to 200-300, a historical high if it did. However, the 2024 season is actually only around 161 ACEs, showing limitations in long-term forecasts.
Experts also emphasize that factors such as dry air and Sahara (SAL) can have a big impact on storm formation, but not always are accurately grasped by forecast models.
Another noteworthy point is that in recent years, the global hurricane season has tended to start later than usual. Many experts believe that ENSO plays an important role in this trend, but there are also concerns that climate change may be changing the rules of storm formation in a way that we do not fully understand.
Forecasts from ECMWF and other models may continue to change as more data is available. More detailed hurricane season forecasts will be released in the spring, before the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1.
However, experts recommend not to rush to conclusions from initial forecasts. Ocean temperatures, atmospheric pressure, dry air and many other unexpected factors can still have a strong impact on the 2025 hurricane season.
