On November 29, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that a low pressure area is likely to form between Visayas and Mindanao this weekend (November 30-December 1).
PAGASA typhoon forecaster Benison Estareja said that cloud clusters have been observed between Visayas and Mindanao. Based on the available data, PAGASA experts assess that the possibility of the low pressure area intensifying into a typhoon is low.
"Our assessment indicates that although the low pressure system has little chance of intensifying into a typhoon, it will bring rain to many parts of the Philippines over the weekend," Mr. Estareja said.
According to Mr. Estareja, the low pressure is forecast to affect southern Luzon areas, including Bicol, Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon) and Mimaropa (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon and Palawan) by the weekend.
The low pressure and intertropical convergence zone will also bring rains in the Visayas and some parts of Mindanao, he added.
PAGASA advised affected residents to exercise caution as moderate to heavy rainfall may cause localized flooding mainly in urbanized, low-lying and coastal areas, while landslides are likely to occur in highly vulnerable areas.
Also according to PAGASA’s storm forecast, during the week of November 29 to December 5, another low pressure area is likely to form southwest of PAGASA’s forecast area (PMD), in the southern South China Sea. This low pressure area near the South China Sea is also unlikely to intensify into a storm, according to current data. However, this may change depending on weather conditions in the coming days.
Previously, PAGASA forecasted one or two more typhoons in December in the Philippines. Mr. Nathaniel Servando, Director of PAGASA, noted that the northeast monsoon will determine the intensity of typhoons in December.
“If a tropical storm hits in the first week of December, it will likely be stronger,” Servando said.
PAGASA chief pointed out that any storm that makes landfall in late December is unlikely to develop into a super typhoon. This is due to the influence of the northeast monsoon.
An average of 20 storms enter the PAR each year, nearly half of which make landfall.
The Philippines has suffered dozens of casualties and property damage worth billions of pesos as six typhoons hit several provinces in the past two months, with super typhoon Pepito (Man-yi) recently hitting Luzon the strongest.
Many of the storms after passing through the Philippines entered the East Sea, such as storm Enteng (storm Yagi - storm number 3), storm Kristine (storm Trami - storm number 6), super storm Pepito (super storm Man-yi - storm number 9).
