The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Typhoon/Depression Forecast Bulletin on December 31 said that although there are three notable weather areas, the possibility of developing into a typhoon before the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 is very low. However, all three areas still pose the risk of heavy rain and complicated weather impacts in some Southeast Asian countries.
Area A (off northern Borneo): A weak low pressure area along the northern coast of Borneo and the western coast of Palawan (Philippines) is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, but the system is not well organized. Upper winds are becoming unfavorable, reducing the system’s ability to develop further. However, the area is forecast to bring heavy rains to parts of Brunei, Malaysia, and Indonesia over the next few days.
The chance of a storm forming in 7 days is low, only 20%.
Area B (southeast Palau): Another low pressure area has formed southeast of Palau, producing heavy rain and thunderstorms. However, winds aloft and deep-level moisture will soon become unfavorable, making development of this system very slow.
Although unlikely to become a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring heavy rains to many parts of the Philippines this weekend.
The chance of a storm forming in 7 days is low, only 10%.
Area C (west of Manila Bay, Philippines): This area may form a new low pressure area, partially linked to Area B, west of Manila Bay and Mindoro by the weekend. However, strong winds aloft and cold air from the surface will limit the system's development as it moves southwest through the weekend.
The chance of a hurricane forming in the next 7 days is low, 10%.
JTWC advised that, although no storm is forming, people in areas affected by heavy rain, especially in Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, should monitor weather forecasts from local meteorological agencies to prepare for timely response.
Meanwhile, according to the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, at 1:00 a.m. on February 31, the low pressure trough with an axis at about 5-8 degrees north latitude connected to the low pressure area located at about 6.0-8.0 degrees north latitude; 113.0-115.0 degrees east longitude.
At Phu Quy station, there are strong gusts of wind level 7; Truong Sa station has strong winds level 5, sometimes level 6, gusts level 7; Huyen Tran station has strong winds level 6, sometimes level 7, gusts level 8.
Forecast for the day and night of December 31, the North East Sea area (including the Hoang Sa archipelago) will have strong winds of level 6, sometimes level 7, gusting to level 8-9. Rough seas. Waves from 3-5m.
Central East Sea area, sea area from Quang Ngai to Binh Thuan and west of South East Sea area (including sea area west of Truong Sa archipelago) strong wind level 6, gust level 7-8. Rough sea. Waves from 2-4.5m.
Day and night 1.1.2025: North East Sea area (including Hoang Sa archipelago sea area) strong northeast wind level 6, especially northeast sea area sometimes level 7, gust level 8-9, rough sea, waves 2-4.5m high; sea area from Binh Dinh to Binh Thuan and sea area west of South East Sea area (including sea area west of Truong Sa archipelago) strong northeast to north wind level 6, gust level 7-8, rough sea, waves 2-4m high.
