The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)'s Typhoon/Tropical Forecast bulletin on December 31 said that although there are three notable weather areas, the possibility of developing into storms before the end of 2024 and the beginning of the new year 2025 is very low. However, all three of these areas still pose a risk of heavy rain and complex weather impacts in some Southeast Asian countries.
Area A (outside the northern coast of Borneo): A weak low pressure area along the northern coast of Borneo and the west coast of Palawan (Philippines) is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms, but not clearly organized. Upper winds are gradually becoming unfavorable, reducing the ability of this system to develop further. However, this area is forecast to bring heavy rain to areas of Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia in the next few days.
The likelihood of a seven-day storm is low at 20%.
Area B (southeast of Palau): Another low pressure area has just formed southeast of Palau, creating a large area of rain and thunderstorms. However, high-altitude winds and deep humidity will soon become unfavorable, causing the development of this system to take place very slowly.
Although unlikely to become a tropical storm, the system is expected to bring heavy rains to many areas of the Philippines this weekend.
The likelihood of a seven-day storm formation is low at just 10%.
Area C (west of Manila Bay, Philippines): This area may form a new low pressure area, partially linked to Area B, west of Manila Bay and Mindoro over the weekend. However, strong upper winds and cold air from the surface will limit the development of the system as it moves southwest throughout the weekend.
The chance of a typhoon forming within the next 7 days is low at 10%.
The JTWC recommends that even if no storms form, people in areas affected by heavy rain, especially in Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, should monitor weather forecasts from local meteorological agencies to prepare for timely response.
Meanwhile, according to the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, at 1:00 a.m. on February 31, the low pressure trough with an axis at about 5-8 degrees north latitude connected to the low pressure area located at about 6.0-80.0 degrees north latitude; 113.0-115.0 degrees east longitude.
At Phu Quy station, there are strong gusts of wind at level 7; Truong Sa station has strong winds of level 5, sometimes level 6, gusting to level 7; Huyen Tran station has strong winds of level 6, sometimes level 7, gusting to level 8.
The forecast for the day and night of December 31, the North East Sea area (including the Hoang Sa archipelago) will have strong winds of level 6, sometimes level 7, gusting to level 8-9. Strong seas. Waves from 3-5m.
Central East Sea area, sea area from Quang Ngai to Binh Thuan and west of South East Sea area (including sea area west of Truong Sa archipelago) strong winds of level 6, gusting to level 7-8. Rough seas. Waves from 2-4.5m.
Day and night of January 1, 2025: the North East Sea area (including the Hoang Sa archipelago) has strong northeast winds of level 6, especially the northeastern sea area has level 7, gusting to level 8-9, rough seas, waves 2-4.5m high; the sea area from Binh Dinh to Binh Thuan and the western sea area of the South East Sea (including the sea area west of Truong Sa archipelago) has strong northeast to north winds of level 6, gusting to level 7-8, rough seas, waves 2-4m high.
