According to the latest storm/low pressure forecast of the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), a large area of turbulent weather is currently active over the Palawan area (Philippines) and the northern part of the Sulu Sea (connected to the South China Sea to the west), related to a large low pressure area.
Although the shower activity is showing signs of organization, scatterometer data indicate that the circulation system is not clearly defined. Upper-level winds are currently only moderately supportive of further development. However, there is a possibility of tropical depression formation on December 29 or 30 as the system moves northwest into the South China Sea, then turns sharply southwest.
By New Year’s Day (January 1, 2025), strong upper-level winds and surface currents are expected to end the tropical depression’s chances of developing into a typhoon. The JTWC assesses the probability of a tropical depression forming in the next 7 days at 50%.
The JTWC weather forecast bulletin said that the high pressure of 1052 hPa in China causes strong northeast monsoon in most of the East Sea, including the area off the southern and eastern coast of Vietnam; the area off the eastern coast of Hainan Island (China); the area off the coast of Hong Kong and Macau (China); and the northwest coast of Luzon Island (Philippines).
Meanwhile, the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting forecasts that on December 29, in the central and southern East Sea (including the Truong Sa archipelago) and the Gulf of Thailand, there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms.During thunderstorms, there is a possibility of tornadoes and strong gusts of wind.
On the night of December 29 and December 30, in the northern East Sea (including the Hoang Sa archipelago), there will be strong northeast winds of level 6-7, gusting to level 8-9.The sea will be rough.Waves will be 4-6m high.
The sea area from Binh Dinh to Ninh Thuan, the central area of the East Sea has strong northeast winds at level 6, gusting to level 7-8. Rough seas. Waves are 3-5m high.
The sea area from Binh Thuan to Ca Mau, the sea area west of the South China Sea (including the sea area west of Truong Sa archipelago) has strong northeast wind level 6, sometimes level 7, gusting to level 8-9. The sea is rough. Waves are 3-5m high.
