There are only about 100 days left until the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. While this region is still quite quiet, climate experts warn of a completely different factor that could cause strong fluctuations in the second half of this year's hurricane season: The return of El Nino, even at a "super strong" level.
To understand why El Nino can affect the storm season, it is necessary to look at the ENSO index - the Southern Oscillation of El Nino. This is a measure of monitoring sea temperature fluctuations in key areas of the Pacific.
ENSO has three main states including El Nino, La Nina and neutral. Each state reflects a different type of heat distribution in the Pacific, thereby affecting not only storm activity in the Atlantic but also global weather.
The operating mechanism is quite simple: warm air tends to rise, while cold air sinks. When the Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal, air rises strongly, promoting the formation of clouds and thunderstorms. If conditions are favorable, these systems can develop into tropical cyclones. That is the El Nino state.
Conversely, when the Pacific is colder than normal - i.e. La Nina - submerged motion in the atmosphere prevails, limiting the formation of clouds and thunderstorms, making tropical systems more difficult to develop.
When seawater temperatures are close to the average level, ENSO is neutral and usually does not create a significant impact in the direction of promoting or containing storms.
With La Nina, rising motion is intensified in the Atlantic, creating conditions for thunderstorms to develop, thereby increasing the total number of storms in the season. Conversely, when El Nino forms, submerged air and stronger winds in the Atlantic can limit the development of storms, causing storm numbers to decrease.
According to a February report by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, the ongoing La Nina phenomenon is likely to end in March or April, when the Pacific returns to neutral status.
A large warm water area near Papua New Guinea and the Philippines is forecast to continue to move eastward in late spring and early summer, gradually warming up the eastern Pacific region. Experts predict that this sea area may reach the El Nino threshold at the peak of the storm season, i.e., from mid-August to mid-October.
This means that the early stages of the 2026 storm season may not be significantly affected by ENSO, but the second half of the storm season is likely to be affected.
US weather forecaster David Schlotthauer even warned of the possibility of a "super El Nino" this fall. According to him, climate models show that intensified west winds will continue until early and mid-summer in most of the central and eastern Pacific regions.
This development could significantly strengthen El Nino throughout the summer, extending to autumn and winter 2026, opening up the risk of extreme weather phenomena globally, from intense heat, dangerous floods to major disruptions in the storm season.
