The hurricane season in the Atlantic lasts from June to November. According to the latest hurricane forecast from storm researchers at the University of Colorado (CSU), USA, due to the phenomenon of El Nino becoming stronger, this year's hurricane season may be different from the fierce hurricane seasons in most of the past decade.
Experts predict this year's storm season will be lower than average, with about 13 named storms, including tropical storms and typhoons. Among these, 6 storms may strengthen into typhoons and 2 storms reach level 3 or higher (major storms).
The last time CSU experts made a forecast for the storm season lower than the average from the beginning was in 2023. However, the storm that year was higher than normal, contrary to most initial forecasts due to record high ocean temperatures.
Another important signal in the 2026 storm forecast is the possibility of El Nino returning, making forecasters more confident than usual that the overall storm will decrease, said Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist and lead author of the CSU forecast.
CSU's storm forecast identifies El Nino as the "main dominant factor" for the 2026 storm season. The La Nina phenomenon that has lasted since last fall has ended this month, giving way to a neutral state.
According to the latest forecast from NOAA, El Nino is expected to form clearly at the end of spring and officially begin in mid-summer. This means that El Nino will be present during the peak of the storm season, lasting from mid-August to mid-October.
Weather forecasters closely monitor El Nino and La Nina, because these phenomena affect the weather in a fairly stable and predictable way, especially when El Nino and La Nina are strong.
The exact time and intensity of El Nino will determine the extent of its impact on the storm season. There are initial signs that El Nino may become quite strong, even become super El Nino, but it is still too early to confirm for sure.
Although El Nino signals the possibility of a less than average storm season, the current ocean temperature trend is giving mixed signals.
Ocean temperatures are higher than normal in the western part of the Atlantic tropical region - the area near the Caribbean. According to CSU, in April, this temperature level is often "goodly correlated" with strong storm seasons.
However, ocean temperatures are currently lower than normal in some areas between and east of the tropical Atlantic - this is often associated with quieter storm seasons.
Sea surface temperatures will continue to rise throughout spring and summer, peaking around early September. The warmest sea time is very important because this is the energy source for all storm systems.
Pollution from fossil fuels heating up the globe is making the ocean hotter, thereby fueling more dangerous storms.
Scientists say that unusually warm oceans can lead to many cases of storms increasing rapidly, like the 4 storms last year. Among them, 3 storms have strengthened into Category 5 super typhoons: Erin, Humberto and Melissa.
If ocean temperatures rise higher than expected, it could weaken the effect of El Nino, thereby opening up the possibility that the storm season will be more intense.
