The European Union (EU) is witnessing a drop in gas inventories much faster than usual, amid prolonged cold weather and the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) not meeting demand.
According to Bloomberg, the rate of gas withdrawal from the EU's reserves is currently at its highest level in the last 5 years.
The amount of gas withdrawn from the EU's reserves currently averages about 7.79 terawatt-hours per day. Meanwhile, the amount of LNG imported is less than half of this number.
As a result, Europe's gas reserves are currently less than 50% of capacity, significantly lower than the normal level of the same period in previous years.
Supply scarcity has quickly pushed gas prices in Europe up sharply. In this month alone, prices have climbed by more than 30%, raising concerns about energy costs for people and businesses.
The current supply gap is linked to the sharp decline in Russian gas flowing into the EU since the Ukraine conflict escalated in 2022, leading to a series of Western sanctions.
Previously, Russia had met about 50% of the bloc's gas demand. By early 2025, the remaining amount of gas continued to be cut when the transit agreement through Ukraine expired.
Last month, the EU reached a consensus on a roadmap to completely eliminate Russian fossil fuels, including LNG, by the end of 2027.
This decision is considered a strategic step in terms of politics and energy security, but at the same time poses a major challenge for the EU in finding a stable and affordable alternative supply.
For its part, Russia affirmed that it is still a reliable energy supplier, and criticized Western sanctions as "illegal". Russia said it had succeeded in shifting exports to markets considered "friendly", thereby reducing the impact of losing the European market.
To fill the supply gap, the EU is increasingly dependent on LNG from the US - a gas source that is significantly more expensive than Russian gas pipelines before.
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) estimates that by 2030, the US could supply up to 80% of EU LNG imports. Previously, an agreement announced in July last year pledged that the EU would buy up to 750 billion USD of US energy products by 2028.
Bloomberg also pointed out that the EU's rapid withdrawal of reserves is not only due to geopolitical or weather factors, but also stems from market economic calculations.
When the spot price of LNG is high, imports become less attractive due to costs including fuel prices, transportation and gas reprocessing. Conversely, gas in reserves is purchased from before at a lower price, so withdrawing it for use helps save costs in the short term.
However, this strategy also means that the EU will face a more difficult problem in the near future: Both ensuring energy security and curbing prices, while external supply is increasingly expensive and unstable.
