World oil prices rose sharply as soon as the trading market opened on March 9, surpassing the psychological threshold of 100 USD/barrel and causing great concern for the global economy.
By the morning of March 9 (Vietnam time), Brent oil prices had reached 114 USD/barrel, equivalent to an increase of more than 23%. WTI crude oil also increased by 19%, to a day high of 111.24 USD/barrel. This increase took place in the context of the energy market being strongly affected by the Iran-related war, making the risk of supply disruption increasingly apparent.
Immediately after the conflict broke out, the 100 USD/barrel mark was considered an important psychological threshold for the market. By exceeding this level, energy prices could put great inflationary pressure on the economy and the stock market.
Recently, retail gasoline prices in the US have risen to the highest level in President Donald Trump's second term. At the same time, the stock market has just experienced the most difficult trading week in many months. These two factors show that the impact of high energy prices is beginning to spread in many countries.
The current diễn biến of oil prices continues the strong upward trend from last week, when crude oil prices have increased by nearly 30%. According to analysts, as long as the war related to Iran continues and Middle Eastern countries continue to cut production, oil prices will still tend to increase further.
The focus of market concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping route that transports about one-fifth of global oil. However, as disruptions in the region dragged on, concerns spread throughout the world's oil logistics network.
Mr. José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said that the 100 USD/barrel mark will create a real shock for the oil market. According to him, this could cause inflation to remain high for a long time and make the stock market experience a difficult year.
Mr. Mike Wilson, Investment Director of Morgan Stanley and one of the most optimistic stock strategists on Wall Street, also said he is closely monitoring the 100 USD/barrel mark. When oil prices exceed this threshold, he will consider adjusting the basic scenario for the stock market this year.
Some experts warn that if oil prices continue to rise sharply, the global economy may face greater risks. Mr. Bruce Richards, Managing Director of Marathon Asset Management, said that if Brent oil prices reach 120 USD/barrel, economic growth may fall to zero and this could trigger recession.
According to Mr. Bruce Richards, this price level will become a threshold that puts the market at risk of economic recession, even though not many people have publicly mentioned it.
