The volatile upward momentum of world gold prices is forecast to be far from over. Gold is increasingly asserting its role as a form of non-risk safe-haven asset to replace the USD.
This is the assessment from Jupiter Asset Management. In the context of scarce physical gold supply, the company believes that shares of mining enterprises are a more effective way to access the gold market.
At the end of January 2026, gold recorded its strongest decline in 40 years and silver plunged to a record low even though both metals had previously continuously set new peaks since the fourth quarter of last year.
Mr. Ned Naylor-Leyland - Director of Gold and Silver at Jupiter, said that gold is still benefiting from a structural upward trend and is likely to set new peaks, despite strong fluctuations.
In my opinion, when gold surpasses the old peak of 5,600 USD/ounce, the entire cycle will restart and many speculators will return to the market" - Mr. Leyland said.
Mr. Leyland believes that the current cycle is different from previous periods in that gold is increasingly being considered a key non-risk asset of the financial system. Meanwhile, in the 1970s, supply chains, geopolitics and raw materials played a dominant role in the market.
Silver prices are forecast to continue to "ultra-fast roller coasters" along with gold, with similar fluctuations.
A new interest rate hike cycle by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is considered one of the few factors that could strongly reverse the upward momentum of gold and silver.
With this context and due to limited physical gold supply, Mr. Leyland said he will prioritize mining stocks over physical gold due to its profitability and strong cash flow.
Increased industrial demand along with prolonged geopolitical tensions have helped gold, silver and other metals continue to attract investors.
JPMorgan also raised its forecast for gold prices for the whole year, saying that world gold prices could reach 6,300 USD/ounce and the average silver price reached 81 USD/ounce. By mid-February, gold and silver were trading around 5,000 USD and 77 USD/ounce respectively. This US investment bank said that the recent adjustment could be a market entry opportunity for long-term investors.
Mr. Leyland also maintains an optimistic view, comparing potential investors to "crocodiles" waiting for the right time to take action.
Once gold surpasses the $5,600/ounce mark, you will witness completely different investment behavior. People will feel forced to participate," he said.
