Imagine a weak storm lining up at sea, only level 1, people are still hesitant to evacuate. However, within just 24 hours, it "transformed" into a Category 4 super typhoon, hitting the coast with terrible devastation. That is the phenomenon of rapid intensification - the most dangerous weather danger that is increasingly popular.
A typhoon is defined as rapidly intensifying as its maximum sustained winds increase to at least 56 km/h within 24 hours. Worryingly, nearly 80% of super typhoons that have ever hit the US have undergone this type of intensification phase - from Hurricanes Katrina (2005), Harvey and Maria 2017 to Ian (2022), and most recently Hurricane Helene last year.
A typical example is Super Typhoon Ida (2021). The storm was only a Category 2 when it passed through Cuba, but when it hit the Gulf of Mexico - an unusually warm area - it quickly "transformed" into a Category 4 storm before making landfall in Louisiana.
Similarly, Katrina increased from 3rd to 5th in 12 hours, leaving New Orleans unable to react.
Therefore, rapid intensification is a nightmare for warning and evacuation work. When people still thought they had 2-3 days to prepare, after just 1 night, the situation had reversed.
June 1 marks the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, and experts have issued a warning. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts that there may be 13-19 named storms, including 3-5 Category 3 super typhoons or more. The Gulf of Mexico currently has more than 60% of its record warm ocean waters, creating ideal conditions for the storm to rapidly intensify.
We could see storms intensify very early, even before the peak season in September, said NOAA hurricane forecaster Marshall Shepherd.
The worrying thing is not only the natural environment, but also from humans. Reducing budgets and personnel at the US National Weather Service (NWS) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has weakened the system of storm warnings, forecasts and relief.
Several meteorological stations in Houston, Miami are seriously short of people. Many emergency training sessions for local officials have been canceled. Meanwhile, accurate forecasting and timely evacuation are vital.
Although this year's hurricane season is expected to be less severe than previous years, experts warn that just one storm making landfall in the right place at the right time is enough to cause disaster.
While the coast has yet to recover from the consecutive attacks from Helene, Milton or Debby last year, the threat of "night monsters" is always lurking.
