On September 23, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released its latest Economic Outlook report, deciding to adjust and raise the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.9%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the estimated 2.8% given in June.
According to OECD's assessment, despite the shocks from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that slowed down growth in the first half of the year, the world economic picture in many countries still shows remarkable resilience.
Relatively abundant oil reserves, new energy supplies added from outside the Gulf region and timely support packages from governments of many countries have contributed to easing the negative impacts of regional conflicts.
In addition, the explosion of the artificial intelligence sector continues to create clear momentum, promoting investment capital flows, production capacity and expanding cross-border trade chains.
However, the agency warned that the prospect of recovery still largely depends on the developments of the conflict in the Middle East.
Oil exploitation and exports in the Gulf region are continuously stagnant, causing energy prices to rebound, while extreme weather phenomena disrupt crops, pushing up prices of many agricultural products sharply in recent times. In addition, the trend of continuous tariff adjustments and erecting barriers to restrict exports is exacerbating supply disruptions and increasing policy instability.
The report forecasts that short-term inflationary pressure will increase due to rising commodity prices but will gradually cool down in 2027. The average inflation rate of the Group of 20 leading developed and emerging economies (G20) is expected to decrease from 4.1% in 2026 to 3.6% in 2027, while core inflation in developed economies will decrease from 2.7% to 2.5%.
Faced with the risk of energy prices rising again, the OECD recommends that central banks maintain stable inflation expectations and flexibly adjust monetary policy according to market developments.
In the medium and long term, this organization calls on governments to promote structural reforms, diversify energy supplies and improve resource efficiency to strengthen resilience to external shocks.
