The latest typhoon and tropical depression bulletin on the afternoon of May 26 from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that at 4 pm on May 26, the tropical depression was about 1,370 km east of the northeast of Mindanao Island.
This tropical depression has maximum sustained wind near the center reaching 45 km/h, gusts up to 55 km/h. According to PAGASA, this tropical depression is currently almost standing still.
At PAGASA's climate forum, weather expert Daniel James Villamil said that the tropical depression may enter PAR on May 28 or 29. At that time, the system will be named "Domeng".
In the next 24 hours, the low pressure trough of this tropical depression combined with the southwest monsoon will continue to affect most of Mindanao and Palawan Island.
It is forecast to be cloudy, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Zamboanga peninsula, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, Soccsksargen region, Lanao del Norte province, Misamis Occidental and Palawan due to the influence of the southwest monsoon. The remaining areas of Mindanao will also have similar weather due to the impact of the tropical depression.
PAGASA warns of moderate rain, sometimes heavy rain that can cause flash floods or landslides, especially in high-risk areas.
Meanwhile, Metro Manila and other areas of the Philippines are expected to have scattered to cloudy skies, accompanied by showers or localized thunderstorms.
Mr. Villamil noted that the development of this tropical depression may prompt the start of the southwest monsoon season, leading to prolonged rains in Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao in the coming days.
PAGASA's forecasting expert said that the potential tropical depression named Domeng tends to move north or northwest, so the possibility of landfall directly on the Philippines is currently not high.
According to PAGASA, the southwest monsoon may start from the end of May or the first week of June. Mr. Joey Figuracion of PAGASA's Department of Meteorology and Agricultural Meteorology pointed out that usually the southwest monsoon starts from about May 16 to the second week of June, but according to current forecasts, this phenomenon may come earlier this year, at the end of May or the beginning of June. However, he emphasized that the start of the southwest monsoon does not mean the official rainy season starts immediately.
PAGASA forecasts that the probability of forming El Nino in the period from June to August is up to 92%, and El Nino may last until early 2027.
Senior weather expert Remedios Ciervo of PAGASA pointed out that the Philippines is currently in a "El Nino warning" state, meaning conditions are increasingly favorable for El Nino to form in the coming months.
According to climate models, developing El Nino may strengthen into a strong El Nino wave in the period of September-November, even possibly reaching a "very strong" level by the end of 2026.
From June to November this year, PAGASA forecasts 9 to 13 storms to form or enter PAR.
However, after a period of heavy rain, drought or aridity may appear from November and last until early 2027 if El Nino continues to persist.
PAGASA noted that stronger El Nino does not necessarily mean more extreme weather, but will increase the risk of intense heat, drought and drought.
