While US President Donald Trump is pushing for negotiations to end the war with Iran, Washington is still sending thousands of troops to the area, raising concerns about the possibility of launching a ground offensive that he himself once opposed. Iran rejects diplomatic efforts and warns it will retaliate strongly if the US sends infantry into its territory, according to The Japan Times on March 27.
Officials and analysts outlined three scenarios: Occupying Kharg Island - Iran's oil center; supporting a nuclear material seizure campaign; or deploying along the coast to break control of the Strait of Hormuz. "The probability of each option is under 50-50 and very risky," expert Michael O'Hanlon said.
Some of Mr. Trump's allies support deploying infantry to put pressure on Tehran to concede. However, Iran warns it will retaliate more strongly, while opposition is increasing in both parties in the US. Major concern is that US forces will face a dense battlefield of drones, a fundamental difference from previous conflicts. Iran claims it may deploy naval mines throughout the Persian Gulf, causing casualties that could far exceed the number of 13 US military personnel killed to date.
The Pentagon has deployed two naval expeditionary units with about 5,000 soldiers along with aircraft and amphibious vehicles to the area, and at the same time reinforced more than 1,000 soldiers of the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East.
This move continues the large-scale force buildup process before the US launched the operation on February 28, while negotiation channels are still maintained as a last resort. The situation is reminiscent of Afghanistan, when the US initially deployed about 3,000 troops and then quickly increased to more than 100,000 troops.
House Speaker Mike Johnson emphasized that increasing troops is "different from deploying infantry to the field" and said that is not yet the goal.
Meanwhile, the White House said that recent exchanges with Iran are constructive. After the 48-hour ultimatum on opening the strait, the US extended it for another 5 days, showing efforts to find a diplomatic outlet.
If the US occupies Kharg Island - which processes about 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, Tehran's main source of income will be cut off. However, deploying troops to this small island could become an escalation, leading to the risk of widespread conflict, disrupting the energy market and increasing casualties.
If we switch from air strikes to ground warfare, the US's advantage will decrease and casualties will increase," expert Bradley Bowman warned.
Iran declares that any act of territorial encroachment will lead to the deployment of naval mines throughout the Persian Gulf and may use Houthi forces in Yemen to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. While Europe is pushing to end the conflict, the Gulf countries are becoming tougher after weeks of being affected by the war.
Although Mr. Trump affirmed that the US is in a dominant position, some former officials have publicly disagreed. Former US Secretary of Defense James Mattis said that military successes are not accompanied by commensurate strategic results, and commented that goals such as "unconditional surrender" or "regime change" are unrealistic.
