New analysis based on data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shows that Russia has taken control of an additional 588 km2 of Ukrainian territory in June, marking the third consecutive month of accelerating on the battlefield. This is the highest increase since the period of October-November 2024.
Two-thirds of the newly controlled area belongs to Donetsk Oblast, where Russia now controls about 75% of the territory, up significantly from 61% a year ago. Donetsk continues to be a top priority for Moscow since launching the military campaign.
Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that it had launched an offensive into the Donetsk Oblast, the first time it had entered the region since the start of the conflict. Russian officials in Zaporizhzhia province said the army had taken control of a village and was currently in control of about 8 square kilometers of territory there. Kiev has not confirmed this and denied that Russia has established a base there.
In northern Ukraine, Russia has also increased its presence. After regaining control of its Kursk region, the Russian army began advancing into Sumy region in Ukraine in early May and has now taken control of nearly 320 km2, with an additional 130 km2 in June.
In total, Russia has controlled nearly 5,500 square kilometres of Ukraine over the past 12 months, compared to 1,215 square kilometres in the same period before. If including the Crimean peninsula and the Donbass region controlled by the breakaway forces before the conflict, Russia currently holds about 19% of Ukraine's territory according to the 2013 standard.
DeepState, an analyst with a link to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, said Russia had gained control of an additional 556 square kilometres in June - lower than the above figure, but still the highest increase of the year. According to this group, Russia's biggest advances are concentrated in the Novopavlivka front (29%) and Pokrovsk (27%) in Donetsk region, followed by Sumy region (18%). These three regions account for 3/4 of the total area gained by Russia in the month, the rest is divided equally among other fronts.
The Ukrainian General Staff on July 1 recognized for the first time the new presence of Russia in Sumy province. The agency had previously declared the situation in the border area "stable," and asserted that Russian forces had been stopped. However, they admit that Russia has mobilized up to 50,000 troops in the region, a number that has never appeared on other fronts.
