According to Mr. Pavel Zavalny, First Vice Chairman of the National Duma Energy Committee (the Russian House of Representatives) and Chairman of the Russian Gas Association, it is expected that by 2025, the flow of gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline (Power of Siberia) will reach a designed capacity of 38 billion m3; at the same time, exports to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will also increase.
In the next 10 years, Russia plans to develop the Far East route to supply gas from the Sakhalin continental shelf to China. In addition, the country is negotiating the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, transporting gas through Kazakhstan with a potential capacity of up to 45 billion m3/year.
Russia is also considering gas exports to Iran via Azerbaijan, with a potential supply of up to 55 billion cubic meters per year. If all of these projects come into operation, total Russian gas exports via pipeline could recover to 240 billion cubic meters per year, with demand in foreign markets remaining stable.
In 2024, the total volume of gas exported via the pipeline from Russia will reach 119 billion cubic meters. Of which, gas through the Power of Siberia pipeline increased from 23 billion cubic meters to 31 billion cubic meters; through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan increased from 32 billion cubic meters to 36 billion cubic meters; through the TurkStream gas pipeline, it increased by 22.4%, mainly thanks to demand from the EU. Exports through Ukraine increased by 2.2%, reaching 13.75 billion m3.
Gas flows via TurkStream increased sharply, as the maximum operating rate of this pipeline in 2024 reached 40%. From January 2025, the capacity has increased by 26.5%, exceeding 50 million m3/day, moving closer to the designed level of 90-95 million m3/day.
Russia's LNG exports in 2024 will increase by 4%, reaching 33.6 million tons. Of which, 17.4 million tons were exported to Europe, with major customers including France, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands. 15.2 million tons are shipped to Asia, with Japan the largest customer.
Although Novatek's Arctic LNG-2 project has been sanctioned, Yamal LNG's output will still increase by 5.9%, reaching 32.96 billion cubic meters in 2024.
With a quick adjustment of its strategy and expanding its market to Asia, Russia is gradually restoring its position in the global gas industry. If major projects are implemented as planned, Russia will not only achieve a record export of 240 billion cubic meters per year, but can also reshape the world energy situation, despite sanctions from the West.
