On May 6 (Moscow time), TASS news agency quoted Mr. Marat Zembatov, Director of the Interdisciplinary Research Center of the Institute of Public Administration of the Russian School of Advanced Economics, as saying that researchers at this facility have developed a scientific model to monitor and forecast conflicts in the Persian Gulf.
This model is called the Gulf Tension Index, temporarily translated as the Gulf Tension Index. According to Mr. Zembatov, this index synthesizes data from open sources on the conflict situation in the Persian Gulf, thereby assessing the current state and forecasting developments in the coming time.
Mr. Zembatov said that the index calculation method is based on 8 groups of quantitative indicators that have been standardized and updated daily. The first two groups of indicators reflect the current military situation in the region and the correlation between the parties involved in the conflict.
The remaining indicator groups include data on industry, logistics, infrastructure, exports, prices, humanity and diplomacy. According to the research group, diplomatic factors are considered an important part in assessing the dynamics of conflict, because dialogue channels or negotiation deadlocks can directly affect the risk of escalation.
This index uses more than 70 individual indicators. Including quantitative data from open sources on the level of damage to military and civilian infrastructure, energy price fluctuations and some important raw materials such as sulfur, urea, phosphate fertilizers and other commodities.
The model also takes into account data related to maritime insurance, freight rates and the level of freedom of navigation in the Gulf region. These are factors that can directly reflect the level of risk to trade and energy transportation in the region.
An important component of the index is the probability factor P7. According to Mr. Zembatov, this factor is used to assess the possibility of a turning point event occurring within 7 days. It could be any new developments that have a decisive impact on the direction of conflict in the Gulf region.
He explained that if the P7 ratio increases while the Gulf Tension Index remains at a moderate level, it may indicate that the market is underestimating risks. Conversely, if all components of the index increase, the possibility of a turning point will be greater and the conflict may enter a more dangerous phase.
According to researchers, the construction of this model aims to provide more quantitative tools to monitor the situation in the Persian Gulf, a region that plays an important role in energy security, maritime transport and global economic stability.
