A Lebanese security official told the AP that Israel was “behind this security incident.” According to Foreign Policy, the biggest question about the Hezbollah pager attack is why it happened now and whether this surprise attack is likely to be the opening act of a wider conflict in the Middle East.
Foreign Policy points out that the pager attack could very well be the opening salvo in a long-running Israeli military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, or it could just be the latest covert operation in a long-running covert war between Israel and Iranian proxies. It is also possible that Israel triggered the attack because of a time limit.
For the Mossad, Israel's intelligence agency, the attack could go a long way toward bolstering its reputation after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023. There are many theories circulating about how the Mossad could have carried out such a large and unexpected attack, such as malware implanted in the devices that could have caused the batteries to overheat and eventually explode. However, there are many signs that the attack was organized, meticulously planned, and paid close attention to detail, Foreign Policy points out.
It is unclear whether the bomb was planted during the manufacturing process or entered the supply chain at another stage. Images of the destroyed pagers analyzed by Reuters show that the format and labeling on the back are similar to those produced by Gold Apollo, a Taiwanese company. However, Gold Apollo founder Hsu Ching-Kuang said the company did not manufacture the pager used in the Lebanon blast. The pager was made by a European company that had the rights to use the Taiwanese company’s trademark.
Beyond the immediate impact, the attack also left Hezbollah increasingly uncertain about what Mossad might do next.
Following the September 17 pager attack, Hezbollah's command and control headquarters were likely destroyed, leading to significant communications problems for the group in the coming period.
Following the attack in Lebanon, other Iranian proxies, such as the Houthis in Yemen, militias in Iraq, Syria, etc., will begin to take greater precautions. This could change the way groups communicate with each other, directly affecting coordination and hindering their ability to conduct attacks.
