On April 15, US President Donald Trump declared that Washington is "opening forever" the Hormuz Strait - the world's vital energy transport route - and said that this move benefits "China and the globe". However, what is happening on the ground shows a much more complex picture.
According to the US military, US warships have implemented the blockade of trade activities related to Iran, applied to ships entering and leaving Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and Oman Gulf. However, Washington still affirms freedom of navigation through Hormuz for non-Iranian ports "not obstructed".
In fact, the ship traffic through this strait is still significantly interrupted. Monitoring data shows that the number of oil tankers is starting to increase again but is still much lower than normal.
Iran has a completely different view. Tehran has declared that it will not return to pre-war state and is developing new regulations, in which ships from countries supporting sanctions or participating in attacks on Iran may have to pay a fee when passing through Hormuz.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized that the country "does not seek war", but will not succumb to pressure or accept surrender. The Iranian military even warned that it could target ships in the Persian Gulf, Oman Sea and even the Red Sea if the blockade continues.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trump continued to express an optimistic view, saying that the conflict is "very close to ending" and hinting at the possibility of reaching a turning point in "the next 2 days".
Military tensions go hand in hand with diplomatic efforts. After the unsuccessful round of negotiations in Islamabad last week, intermediary channels - especially Pakistan and some Gulf countries - are promoting the possibility of resuming US-Iran talks in the coming days.
A 2-week ceasefire that was recently accepted by both sides created hope, but was also quickly overshadowed by mutual accusations of "unacceptable" demands.
On the energy market, oil prices continue to react sensitively to developments in Hormuz - which transports about 20% of global oil and liquefied gas supplies. Brent oil prices are currently fluctuating around the 95 USD/barrel mark, not exceeding the 100 USD threshold due to negotiation expectations, but still maintaining "risk compensation" because supply is unstable.
Not only energy, the global economy is also under pressure. Warnings suggest that prolonged conflict could slow growth and push inflation expectations back up, especially in the US.
However, the Asian stock market reacted more positively, betting on the possibility that diplomacy would prevent a prolonged crisis in the Middle East.
