After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the EU imposed an embargo on Russian gas and oil exports to both deplete Russia’s income and move away from its dependence on Russian energy imports. However, not all EU members can quickly stop needing to import energy from Russia. Take Slovakia, for example. So the EU allows members like Slovakia to continue importing energy from Russia, pushing the problem between the EU and Slovakia to a problem between Slovakia and Ukraine.
By not renewing the Russian gas transit agreement, Ukraine benefits by eliminating a source of Russian revenue estimated to be worth more than $5 billion annually. Another benefit for Ukraine is that it can tap into incoming US President Donald Trump, who has threatened to impose protectionist tariffs on the EU if it does not import more US oil and gas. Ukraine knows that in the next four years of his presidency, Trump can either help Ukraine achieve its desired goal or be left half dead in its conflict with Russia.
However, the harmful and counterproductive effect for Ukraine is that EU and NATO members whose interests are being ignored by Ukraine, such as Slovakia, will gradually lose their goodwill and willingness to continue supporting Kiev, and Ukraine will be likely to be retaliated against by these members. Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico has threatened to stop financial and logistical support for the more than 130,000 Ukrainian refugees currently in Slovakia and to cut off electricity supplies to Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky excitedly said that Ukraine had caused Russia to experience "the most severe defeat ever". But in reality, this benefit for Ukraine is only limited, because in the past 3 years, Russia has gradually adapted to the situation of being embargoed by the EU on energy exports, has sought ways to circumvent EU sanctions and has sought other partners and markets to replace the EU.
Slovakia is hurt by the disruption of gas supplies and if it imports gas from other partners, it will not be able to get the preferential prices that Russia offers. But Slovakia has a good reason not to join the EU and NATO in supporting Ukraine, to justify its special relationship with Russia and to rally forces within the EU and NATO. Another advantage for Slovakia is to create a fait accompli in relations with Russia, the EU and Ukraine before Mr. Trump makes any decisions regarding the EU, Ukraine and Russia.
Russia is damaged economically and commercially, but Russia has prepared for this scenario, so the damage is limited. The advantage for Russia is that this can be used to divide the EU and NATO internally as well as to divide some EU and NATO members with Ukraine.
Therefore, in the benefits there is harm and in the harm there is still benefit for all parties involved. Each party must maximize its own benefits and limit the harm to itself.
