As the world's most important energy transportation route through the Strait of Hormuz falls into crisis, China is recalculating its energy security strategy, in which Russian gas is prioritized.
China's 5-year development plan for the period 2026-2030 mentions promoting large gas pipeline projects with Russia.
Documents submitted to the Chinese National People's Congress last week stated that Beijing will "accelerate preparations" for the central route of the China-Russia gas pipeline system. Although the draft does not specifically name the project, many energy experts believe that this is the "Siberia Power 2" pipeline - a project that was negotiated by the two sides for nearly a decade.
According to the design, this pipeline will transport about 50 billion m3 of gas per year from Russia's West Siberia region to northern China, passing through Mongolian territory. If deployed on schedule or accelerated construction, it will become one of the largest gas pipelines in Asia.
In September last year, Russia and China signed a legally binding memorandum of understanding to build the project, after years of negotiations, marking an important step forward in energy cooperation between the two countries.
Currently, Russia has supplied gas to China through the first "Siberian Power" pipeline, which went into operation in 2019. This pipeline reached its maximum capacity in December 2024 and became one of China's largest pipeline gas sources.
In addition to gas through pipelines, Russia has also risen to become China's second largest supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG), second only to Qatar.
The move to strengthen Russia-China energy cooperation takes place in the context of LNG supplies from the Middle East facing a serious risk of disruption. Military attacks between the US, Israel and Iran have partially paralyzed transportation through the Strait of Hormuz - a sea route transporting about 20% of global oil and gas.
China currently imports about 18% of LNG from Qatar and nearly 5% from the UAE. Most shipments must pass through the Strait of Hormuz before reaching Asia. When this transport route is disrupted by war, the risk of energy shortages for Asian economies, especially China, increases significantly.
In parallel with "Siberian Power 2", China's development plan also mentions another project, the China-Russia Far East gas pipeline. This line is built by Russia's Gazprom Group and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), with a capacity of about 12 billion cubic meters per year and is expected to be put into operation in January 2027.
Meanwhile, Russia is also seeking to restructure its energy market. President Vladimir Putin recently warned that Russia could proactively completely stop gas supplies to the EU before the bloc's import ban is expected to take effect in 2027, and switch to "reliable partners" in Asia.
In the context of the Middle East war threatening LNG transport routes, China's acceleration of gas pipelines from Russia could significantly change the Eurasian energy map in the coming years.
