The EU is considering giving Moldova a big step forward in its efforts to join the 27-member bloc ahead of the Moldova parliamentary election in late September, putting Moldova ahead for the first time against Ukraine.
Under the scenario being studied by EU officials, European countries will vote to open a first group of talks for Moldova in early September after a meeting of EU ministers. This is an important legal step in the roadmap to becoming a member of the bloc.
This move will give a strong electricity boost to Moldova's President Maia Sandu, who is campaigning in support of the EU.
However, allowing Moldova to make progress in its efforts to join the EU while Ukraine is still in a stagnant state risks making Kiev angry because Ukraine's efforts to join the EU have been carried out synchronously with Moldova since both countries were given the green light by the European Council in 2023.
According to the European Commission spokesperson, both Moldova and Ukraine have implemented extensive reforms to join the EU, completing all the necessary steps to open the first negotiation cluster.
The problem is that Ukraine's efforts to join the EU are being thwarted by Hungary, as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has turned his opposition to Kiev's entry into the bloc into a key point in his bid for re-election next year.
So, while Moldova could win the approval of all 27 member states to open a negotiating group at an informal meeting of the Joint Affairs Council on September 1, Ukraine is unlikely to receive similar support.
This also puts countries that support EU expansion, including Denmark, which holds the EU presidency, in a difficult position.
If Moldova's candidate status is tightly linked to Ukraine, there will be no immediate progress in the joining process. Allowing Moldova to make progress will send a strong message to EU voters in Moldova, but could anger Ukrainians.
