Resources and economy
At the 2026 World Cup, among the 10 most populous countries on the planet, only the US (ranked 3rd in the list) and Brazil (5) participate. Although the US is 1 of the 3 host countries of the 2026 World Cup - not having to play in the qualifiers, they are also quite frequent guests at the biggest football festival on the planet.
2 other countries (Russia and Nigeria) have appeared in some previous World Cups. Meanwhile, China and Indonesia have only breathed the air of the World Cup once. India (the most populous country in the world), Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Pakistan still only dare to dream of this ticket - although technically, India once passed the 1950 World Cup qualifiers in Brazil but withdrew less than 1 month before the tournament started.
In Soccernomics (a book analyzing data to study success and failure in sports), economist Stefan Szymanski points out that the success of a football background closely depends on 3 core factors: population, economy and football tradition. Population only provides "raw material" - that is, the number of potential players. But to transform potential into world-class stars, that country needs financial strength and standard infrastructure.
Traditionality
Besides economy and people, football tradition is another factor, even decisive. This explains why Uruguay, a South American country with only 3.5 million people, can win 2 World Cups (1930 and 1950). Their first international match took place in 1902 (lost to Argentina 0-6), which is 12 years before Brazil played their first match. While Brazil and Argentina, countries with income per capita much lower than the threshold of 15,000 USD/year as Szymanski wrote in Soccernomics, also own a total of 8 World Cup titles also thanks to their long-standing tradition.
African and South Asian countries, which have a much shorter history of establishment or access to football later, have made great efforts to narrow the gap. Szymanski said that many countries face difficulties due to lack of resources and management capacity. However, even if they invest more money, they will still have to struggle due to lack of experience and football secrets.
In Vietnam, although the love of football is extremely passionate and the population has exceeded 100 million people, the reality is very clear that economy, infrastructure and football tradition are weak. Indonesia is pursuing a strategy of naturalizing European players of Indonesian origin, but in the long run, internal strength is still needed. Meanwhile, China - which has poured billions of USD to attract foreign stars to the national championship but has been absent from the World Cup since 2002 - shows that money cannot buy fundamental football thinking.
