Forecast for the next management period, gasoline and oil prices fluctuate in different directions

Thạch Lam |

It is forecasted that in the operating period next week, gasoline prices will fluctuate in different directions. In which, gasoline prices may decrease, oil prices may increase.

According to a survey at 07:45 on May 18 (Vietnam time), WTI oil price increased by 0.87 USD/barrel (up 1.41%), to 62.49 USD/barrel. Brent oil price increased by 0.88 USD/barrel (down 1.36%), to 65.41 USD/barrel.

According to ING analysts, a nuclear deal to lift sanctions would allow Iran to increase oil production, leading to an additional supply of about 400,000 barrels per day.

Investor sentiment was boosted this week as the United States and China, the world's two largest oil consuming economies and countries, agreed to a 90-day halt to a trade war. During that time, both sides will sharply reduce trade tariffs.

Analysts at BMI - a unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a research report that "while the 90-day stabilization period opens the door for further progress in lowering trade barriers on both sides, uncertainty over long-term trade policy will limit price increases".

For the domestic market, according to a business representative, gasoline prices will fluctuate according to the world gasoline situation. According to current market developments, it is forecasted that in the next price adjustment period, retail prices of gasoline may have opposite adjustments.

Of which, RON 95 gasoline price is forecast to decrease by about 100 VND/liter; E5 gasoline decreases by about 90 VND/liter; Diesel increases by about 190 VND/liter.

The world petroleum market last week (from May 8, 2025 to May 14, 2025) was affected by main factors such as: temporary agreement to cut import tariffs on goods between the US and China, continued increase in tensions in the Middle East; OPEC+ accelerated oil production; military conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues...

The above factors have mainly caused fluctuations in world oil prices in recent days.

The average price of world petroleum products between the price adjustment period on May 8, 2025 and the adjustment period on May 15, 2025 is:

75.493 USD/barrel of RON92 gasoline used to make E5RON92 gasoline (up 2.213 USD/barrel, equivalent to an increase of 3.02%); 76.993 USD/barrel of RON95 gasoline (up 2.130 USD/barrel, equivalent to an increase of 2.85%);

78.380 USD/barrel of kerosene (up 1.600 USD/barrel, equivalent to an increase of 2.08%); 79.113 USD/barrel of diesel 0.05S (up 2.343 USD/barrel, equivalent to an increase of 3.05%); 426.983 USD/ton of 180CST 3.5S mazut (up 21.826 USD/ton, equivalent to an increase of 5.39%).

Domestic retail gasoline prices on May 18, 2025 will be applied according to the adjustment session from 3:00 p.m. on May 15 of the Ministry of Finance - Ministry of Industry and Trade.

In the adjustment session on May 15, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline increased compared to the previous adjustment period, priced at VND19 cul/liter (up VND403/liter). RON 95-III gasoline price increased compared to the previous adjustment period, priced at VND19,594/liter (up VND415/liter).

Prices of oil products increased simultaneously. Of which, diesel 0.05S is priced at VND 17,228/liter (up VND 419/liter); kerosene has a new price of VND 17,226/liter (up VND 285/liter); mazut is priced at VND 16,160/kg (up VND 627/kg).

Thạch Lam
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