Domestic coffee prices
Opening the morning trading session at the beginning of the week (Monday, January 12), the coffee market in the Central Highlands has not recorded a new breakthrough but mainly went sideways, maintaining the closing price of last weekend. The aftertaste from the sharp decrease on Saturday still weighs heavily on market sentiment, making trading activities quite cautious. The average buying price of the whole region is currently neo at 97,600 VND/kg.
In key growing areas, the listed price this morning is as follows:
Dak Nong (old): Continuing to be the locality holding the best price in the region, trading at 97,800 VND/kg.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Two coffee "capitals" jointly maintain a purchasing price of 97,500 VND/kg.
Lam Dong: Still at the lowest level, fluctuating around 97,200 VND/kg.
Compared to the peak of 99,100 - 99,200 VND/kg set in the middle of last week, the market has now lost about 1,500 VND/kg. The 100,000 VND/kg mark is temporarily becoming distant in the short term as cash flow is waiting for clearer signals from the international market.
World coffee prices
The international market entered a new trading week with red baggage from the closing session last weekend (Thursday). Exchanges have not yet opened a new session, so the closing prices of the last session of the week are still the reference for this morning.
New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): Under the greatest pressure. March 2026 futures closed last week at 357.65 cents/lb, down sharply 14.70 cents (equivalent to 3.94%). The main reason is the forecast that rain will appear in central Brazil this week, easing drought concerns.
London Stock Exchange (Robusta): Also starting the new week at a low level. March 2026 futures price is currently anchored at 3,903 USD/ton, down 25 USD (0.63%). Pressure from Vietnamese supply (exports increased by 17.5%) is still curbing the recovery momentum of this exchange.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
This trading week (January 11 - January 17) is forecast to be an important "sidewalk" week. The focus of the entire market's attention will be on actual rainfall in Brazil.
Scenario 1 (Negative): If widespread rain occurs as predicted, Arabica New York prices may continue to sell off, dragging Robusta London down to the 3,900 USD/ton mark. At that time, Vietnamese coffee prices are at risk of falling to the 96,000 VND/kg zone.
Scenario 2 (Proactive): If the rainfall is not large enough or only locally scattered, the fear of drought will return, activating bottom-fishing cash flow. Combined with Robusta inventory on the ICE exchange still being low, the price may rebound to the 98,000 - 99,000 VND/kg range.
