Domestic coffee prices
On November 13, coffee prices in key Central Highlands regions witnessed a historic price crash, losing an average of VND 4,800/kg, bringing the average price in the whole region down to only VND 113,300/kg. This decrease has erased all recovery results in recent weeks.
Specifically, Lam Dong was the place with the strongest decrease of VND 5,800/kg, down to VND 111,500/kg. Dak Lak and Gia Lai both decreased by VND 5,000/kg, to VND 113,500/kg and VND 113,000/kg. Dak Nong (old) also lost 4,500 VND/kg, down to 113,500 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
The international coffee market (transacted on November 12) experienced a terrible sell-off session. Robusta ( London) plummeted 252 USD/ton (down 5.46%), closing at 4,366 USD/ton (term in June-June).
Arabica (New York) also collapsed, losing 19.05 US cents/lb (down 4.51%), closing at 403.65 US cents/lb.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
Today's terrible price crash comes from one main cause: news about US tariff policies.
Coffee prices were immediately cut after President Trump announced late Tuesday that "We will reduce some tariffs on coffee".
The decline is further strengthened as the US Treasury Secretary confirmed that there will be "key announcements in the next few days" about non-crops grown in the US, including coffee. Hopes of a 50% tariff relief on Brazil have crushed the market.
In addition, downward pressure also comes from the forecast of abundant supply. StoneX agency issued the first forecast for Brazil's 2026/27 crop year, saying that output will increase by 29% over the same period. At the same time, heavy rains in Brazil (160% of the average) have eased concerns about drought. Abundant supply from Vietnam (for 10 months coffee exports increased by 13.4%) also contributed to the decline.
These news have completely overwhelmed price support factors such as international inventories still at a record low ( Arabica's lowest level in 1.75 years).
The short-term trend forecast has turned to a clear negative one. The market may continue to fall sharply as concerns about supply have been relieved.
