Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning (January 17) recorded a slight differentiation but still maintained a very high price base. After yesterday's explosive session, the upward momentum slowed down as it was affected by the adjustment of the world market. The average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is currently anchored at 99,100 VND/kg, sideways compared to the previous day's peak.
In Lam Dong province, adjustment pressure appeared when the price slightly decreased by 200 VND/kg, falling to 98,300 VND/kg. Meanwhile, the remaining localities still maintained very "hard" prices. In Dak Lak and Gia Lai, agents still maintained a purchase level of 99,000 VND/kg, unchanged compared to yesterday.
Notably, Dak Nong province (old) continues to be a "bright star" of the market when maintaining a high price of 99,300 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
The international market closed the last trading session of the week (early morning of January 17th Vietnam time) with red color covering it, ending the impressive upward trend in the middle of the week.
On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee futures for March 2026 lost their upward momentum at the beginning of the session, reversing to a decrease of 2.80 cents (equivalent to 0.77%), closing at 355.30 cents/lb. The main reason for Arabica's "sprint" is that the latest weather forecast models show that the possibility of rain will increase in key coffee growing areas of Brazil next week, easing the fear of drought that previously pushed prices up sharply.
On the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices fluctuated and closed the session slightly down. March 2026 futures fell 3 USD (0.06%), closing right at the full 4,000 USD/ton mark. Despite decreasing points, the fact that buyers successfully defended the psychological threshold of 4,000 USD/ton is an important technical signal, showing that the medium-term upward trend has not been broken despite pressure from information about Vietnam's supply growth.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
This weekend's decline is considered a reasonable technical correction after the market increased quite "hotly" in the middle of the week. Forecast rain in Brazil has played a role as an excuse for speculative funds to take short-term profits, bringing the market back to a more balanced state.
However, the risk of supply is still there. Robusta inventory on the ICE exchange, although slightly increased, is still low (about 4,278 lots according to old data), and whether the actual rainfall in Brazil next week will be enough to quench the thirst for coffee plants is still an unknown.
It is forecasted that during the weekend holidays, domestic coffee prices will continue to maintain stability around the range of 98,300 - 99,300 VND/kg. The 100,000 VND/kg mark is temporarily unable to be conquered immediately, but with the current solid price base, the market may only be "taking a step back" to wait for clearer signals from the weather next week.
