Domestic coffee prices
Looking back at the overall situation last week (January 11 - January 17), the market experienced opposite levels of emotions like a roller coaster.
The peak of the week fell in the session on January 16, when domestic coffee prices suddenly broke through, setting a new peak of the crop year of 99,300 VND/kg. At the same time, localities such as Dak Lak and Gia Lai also touched the threshold of 99,000 VND/kg. The trading atmosphere became boiling when the historical milestone of 100,000 VND was only less than 1,000 VND away.
However, the upward momentum could not be maintained completely until the end of the week. Adjustment pressure from the world market in the last session caused the price to stagnate. Currently, the purchasing price in Dak Nong (old) is still leading at 99,300 VND/kg. Dak Lak and Gia Lai are neo at 99,000 VND/kg, while Lam Dong maintains the level of 98,300 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
The international market last week was the main stage of weather information. The focus of attention was on the New York Stock Exchange (Arabica). In the middle of the week, Arabica prices once soared to the highest level in 1 month thanks to a report showing that the Minas Gerais region only received 29% of the historical average rainfall.
However, by the last session of the week, the wind had changed direction. The latest forecasts about the possibility of rain returning to Brazil next week have prompted speculators to quickly take profits. At the end of the week, Arabica futures for March 2026 fell 2.80 cents, falling to 355.30 cents/lb.
Meanwhile, the London exchange (Robusta) showed incredible resilience. Despite pressure from Vietnam's export data increasing by 17.5%, the price of Robusta remained stable. Closing the week, the March 2026 term closed right at the round milestone of 4,000 USD/ton, only slightly down 3 USD compared to the previous session.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
Ending a volatile trading week, the market is stopping at a crossroads to wait for clearer signals. The 100,000 VND/kg mark is still the biggest "hidden number" in the coming week.
The key factor will lie in the actual rainfall in Brazil. If the forecast rains are not large enough to quench the thirst for coffee trees, Arabica prices will rebound, creating momentum for Robusta and Vietnamese domestic prices to break peaks. Forecast for next week (January 19 - January 24), domestic coffee prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in the range of 98,000 - 100,000 VND/kg.
