Domestic coffee prices
After yesterday's explosive trading session, the domestic coffee market this morning, January 23, could not maintain its heat and suddenly turned down widely. Profit-taking selling pressure at the historical peak has caused agents to adjust down the average purchase price from 700 - 900 VND/kg.
The milestone of 100,000 VND/kg was officially broken just 24 hours after setting, bringing the average price of the entire Central Highlands region back to 99,200 VND/kg.
Dak Nong province (old), which once led yesterday's upward momentum, also recorded the deepest decrease of 900 VND/kg, bringing the purchasing price back to 99,300 VND/kg.
In the two "capitals" of Dak Lak and Gia Lai, coffee prices both decreased by 800 VND/kg, currently trading at the same level of 99,200 VND/kg.
Meanwhile, Lam Dong province recorded a decrease of 700 VND/kg, bringing the price of crushed coffee beans back to 98,800 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
The decline of the domestic market is directly affected by the adjustment session of the Robusta London exchange.
At the end of the trading session, the price of Robusta for March 2026 futures decreased by 52 USD (equivalent to 1.28%), closing at 4,026 USD/ton.
The main reason Robusta cooled down was that inventories on the ICE exchange recovered to a 1.75-month high, reaching 4,532 lots on Thursday, reducing concerns about a shortage of immediate supply.
In the opposite direction, the New York Arabica exchange had a more positive development when it recovered slightly after the initial decline. The March 2026 Arabica futures closed up 0.20 cents (0.06%), closing at 347.70 cents/lb.
The driving force helping Arabica maintain its green color comes from the fact that the Brazilian Real rose to a 2.25-month high against the USD, which limits selling pressure from Brazilian farmers. However, the increase was significantly curbed by weather forecasts showing that rain will appear every day this week in Minas Gerais, the largest Arabica growing region in Brazil.
Market outlook and forecast
Today's decline is considered a necessary technical correction after the market increased too sharply yesterday.
The 100,000 VND/kg mark has proven to be an extremely strong psychological resistance threshold, where sellers are ready to clear goods to realize profits.
Although Brazil's exports are decreasing sharply (Robusta exports in December decreased by 61%), the recovery of inventory on the ICE exchange and supply pressure from Vietnam, which is entering the peak harvest season, have created a new balance for the market.
In the short term, coffee prices are likely to continue to fluctuate around the 98,000 - 99,500 VND/kg range to accumulate. The market is still very sensitive to weather information in Brazil and exchange rate developments.
