Domestic coffee prices
Opening the first trading session of the new week (Monday, January 5th), the coffee market in the Central Highlands continued to show stability in the peak price range.
Although the average price of the whole region did not change too much compared to the end of the week, anchored at 98,500 VND/kg, detailed developments show the positive movement of purchasing cash flow.
Localities that had lower prices in previous days are being pushed up by agents to compete for goods sources, creating a "flater" price level throughout the region.
Lam Dong - the locality usually with the lowest prices in the region - this morning recorded an increase of 100 VND/kg, raising the purchase price to 98,000 VND/kg. Similarly, in Gia Lai, the price also increased by another 100 VND/kg, reaching the 98,500 VND/kg mark, officially catching up with the prices of Dak Lak and Dak Nong (old).
In Dak Lak and Dak Nong (old), the purchasing price maintained stability at a high level of 98,500 VND/kg. Thus, the price difference between key growing areas is currently only about 500 VND/kg, showing that the scarcity of goods is taking place evenly and purchasers no longer have many cheap price options. The 100,000 VND/kg mark is still a "magnet" attracting the expectations of the entire market this week.
World coffee prices
Entering the new trading week, the international market is being fueled by the strong increase from the closing session last week (Thursday). On the New York Stock Exchange, Arabica coffee futures for March 2026 had a bursting trading session when it increased by 8.55 cents (equivalent to 2.45%), closing at a very high level of 355.10 cents/lb.
The main driving force for this leap came from the currency market, when Brazil's Real rose sharply to a 2-week high against the USD, causing Brazilian farmers to limit selling to wait for better prices.
On the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices also maintained positive green color. March 2026 futures contracts increased by 5 USD (0.13%), closing at 3,954 USD/ton. Notably, the January 2026 spot futures are still anchored at a "huge" level of 4,132 USD/ton.
The large difference between spot prices and futures (inflation structure) continues to affirm that concerns about short-term supply shortages have not subsided, especially when Robusta inventories on the ICE exchange, although slightly recovering, are still at an alarmingly low level.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
Entering the second trading week of 2026, the market is witnessing a strong synergy between monetary factors and long-term supply concerns, creating momentum for coffee prices to set new records.
The strongest growth momentum in the last session of last week came from the recovery of the Brazilian Real (up to a 2-week high against the USD). As the domestic currency strengthened, Brazilian farmers tended to limit selling to avoid exchange rate disadvantages, directly reducing the supply of Arabica to the world market. At the same time, information that the Minas Gerais region only received 17% of the historical average rainfall is also causing speculative funds to increase their fictitious buying positions due to concerns that drought will affect the yield process.
Regarding the Southeast Asian region's supply factor, for Robusta, the focus of attention is still on Indonesia. Although the most extreme floods may have passed, the market is still having to "revalue" the losses it left for the next crop. Warning from the Indonesian Coffee Exporters Association that the export turnover for the 2025/26 crop may decrease by 15% due to 1/3 of the cultivated area in North Sumatra being affected is still a "suspended sentence" hanging, supporting prices to anchor at a high level. The market fears that supply from Indonesia will not be enough to compensate in the pre-harvest period, forcing roasters to completely depend on Vietnamese goods.
