Domestic coffee prices
After a vibrant first session of the week, the domestic coffee market this morning (January 6) suffered widespread downward adjustment pressure, temporarily moving away from the peak of 98,500 VND/kg set yesterday. Short-term profit-taking pressure along with downward signals from the London exchange has caused purchasing prices in key growing areas of the Central Highlands to decrease by an average of 400 VND/kg, bringing the average price to 98,100 VND/kg.
Specifically, at two "leaders" Dak Lak and Gia Lai, coffee prices simultaneously decreased by 500 VND/kg, retreating to the 98,000 VND/kg mark. This is a necessary adjustment after the recent "skyrocket" increase. Similarly, in Lam Dong, purchasing prices also decreased by 500 VND/kg, currently trading at 97,500 VND/kg.
Notably, Dak Nong (old) showed better resistance when it only slightly decreased by 300 VND/kg, thereby rising to become the locality with the highest purchasing price in the region this morning, reaching 98,200 VND/kg. In general, despite the adjustment, the price base is still neo at a very high level, showing that farmers are still taking the initiative and not selling massively.
World coffee prices
The international market in the past session witnessed a clear differentiation between the two exchanges, reflecting two opposing supply and demand stories.
On the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices turned down sharply, reaching the lowest level in the past week. The March 2026 delivery term decreased by 36 USD (equivalent to 0.91%), closing at 3,918 USD/ton. The January 2026 spot delivery term is under stronger selling pressure, down to 69 USD (1.67%), to 4,063 USD/ton. The main reason for Robusta's "cooldown" is pressure from Vietnam's supply. According to the Statistics Office, Vietnam's coffee exports in 2025 surged by 17.5% compared to the same period, reaching 1.58 million tons, easing concerns about global supply shortages.
Conversely, on the New York exchange, Arabica coffee prices still maintained positive green color. March 2026 futures increased by 2.05 cents (0.57%), closing at 359.35 cents/lb. Arabica is supported by two factors: First, the weather, when the Minas Gerais region (Brazil) only received 47.9 mm of rain last week (equal to 67% of the historical average), causing concern for the crop season. Second, the monetary factor, the Real Brazilian dollar rose to a 3-week high against the USD, limiting selling pressure from the country's producers.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The market is entering a period of extremely strong psychological tug-of-war. Impressive export data from Vietnam (up 17.5%) has become the perfect excuse for hedge funds on the London exchange to take profits after the recent hot increase. The fact that goods flows from our country to the market are more abundant than expected is temporarily reducing pressure on the short-selling side.
However, this decline is considered only a short-term technical correction and not a trend reversal. Because coffee inventories on the ICE exchange are still fluctuating in the low zone, especially Robusta. In addition, the supporting factor from Arabica prices (due to concerns about Brazilian weather) is still there, which will play a role in anchoring market sentiment from collapsing.
