Domestic coffee prices
The price of raw coffee beans in the Central Highlands region in the morning session of May 14, 2026 recorded a very strong simultaneous increase of 1,000 VND per kg in all key localities.
According to market records, the average purchase price for the whole region has now been pushed to the threshold of 88,900 VND per kg. This is an impressive growth momentum that helps the market regain everything lost in the first fluctuating sessions of the week, exceeding the 87,900 VND recorded on May 13, 2026 and the 87,000 VND mark of May 11, 2026.
In Dak Nong province (old), the purchase price has reached the threshold of 89,000 VND per kg, continuing to maintain the position of the locality with the highest price in the region.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces also strongly broke through to 88,900 VND per kg, while the Lam Dong area listed at 88,300 VND per kg after recovering an additional 1,000 VND compared to yesterday's session.
The excitement of the coffee market takes place in the context that pepper prices still remain stable at 143,000 VND per kg and the USD exchange rate listed at Vietcombank slightly increased by 3 VND to 26,102 VND.
World coffee prices
Bright green covered international futures exchanges in the nearest closing session as the actual shortage of goods became the main driving force for prices.
On the London exchange, Robusta coffee futures for July 2026 delivery surged by another 78 USD, equivalent to 2.24%, closing the session at 3,560 USD per ton, officially setting the highest level in the past 7 weeks.
At the same pace of growth, the New York exchange witnessed Arabica futures for July 2026 delivery edge up another 0.60 cent, equivalent to 0.21%, reaching 280.75 cents per pound. The main impetus for the breakthrough came from Robusta inventories monitored by ICE falling to a record low in the past 2 years with only 3,642 lots on Wednesday, while Arabica inventories also anchored at a 2.5-month low of 471,831 bags.
In addition, the latest report from Cecafe shows that Brazil's green coffee exports in April decreased by 1.3% compared to the same period last year, reaching 2.76 million bags, further increasing concerns about short-term supply shortages.
The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran is still seriously disrupting the global supply chain, increasing sea transportation costs, insurance and fertilizer prices to very high levels.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
From a market analysis perspective, although coffee prices are in a short-term fever due to technical tightening, long-term surplus factors are still a ghost weighing on price prospects.
Reputable organizations such as Marex Group Plc and StoneX continuously make forecasts about a record crop season for Brazil in the 2026 crop year. 2027 with output possibly reaching 75.9 million sacks, leading to a global surplus scenario of up to 10 million sacks in 2026.
In Vietnam, the export momentum in the first 4 months of the year grew impressively by 15.8%, reaching 810,000 tons, along with forecasts for the 2025 crop year to increase by 6.2% to 30.8 million bags from the USDA, which are still barriers preventing prices from breaking too far from the current resistance zones.
It is predicted that in the coming sessions, coffee prices will continue to be in a state of fierce tug-of-war as speculators balance between the actual inventory shortage and the psychological pressure from the new South American crop line about to flood the market.
