Creating double-digit growth momentum
On the morning of February 12, at the 9th Extraordinary Session of the 15th National Assembly, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung presented to the National Assembly a report on the Supplementary Project on socio-economic development in 2025 with a growth target of 8% or more.
According to the Minister of Planning and Investment, regarding the forecast of the context, situation and goals, the economic growth scenario for 2025, the forecast for 2025 is to continue to closely follow the major trends that have been discussed and agreed upon by the Central Committee and the National Assembly. Opportunities, advantages and difficulties, challenges intertwine, but difficulties and challenges are more numerous, and can have a significant impact on our country's economy. In the midst of difficulties and challenges, new opportunities may also appear, we need to proactively grasp and exploit all opportunities and resources for growth and development.
The year 2025 is of special importance, being the final year of implementing the 5-year Socio-Economic Development Plan 2021-2025, the year of acceleration, breakthrough, and reaching the finish line, and at the same time the year of focusing on organizing Party Congresses at all levels towards the 14th National Party Congress and consolidating and preparing well the fundamental factors to successfully implement the 10-year Strategy 2021-2030, marking the time when the country enters a new era of development. Any 2021-2025 target that has not been achieved must be determined to be completed; any target that has been achieved must be improved in quality and efficiency.
Therefore, the country's GDP growth in 2025 needs to reach 8% or more, contributing to creating a solid foundation for achieving double-digit growth rates over a long enough period (starting from 2026). Growth must be fast but sustainable, maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, ensuring major balances; harmonious development between the economy and society and environmental protection, ensuring national defense and security.
Regarding the main tasks and solutions, according to Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung, it is necessary to perfect institutions and laws; Unblock and effectively use public investment resources; Promote private investment and processing and manufacturing industries; Promote consumption, attract tourists; Strongly promote new growth drivers, develop new and advanced production forces...
On the basis of this Project, the Government submits to the National Assembly for consideration and comments on adjusting a number of key targets: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 8% or more; Average consumer price index (CPI) growth rate of about 4.5-5%; If necessary, allow the adjustment of the State budget deficit to about 4-4.5% of GDP to mobilize resources for development investment; public debt, government debt, and foreign debt may reach or exceed the warning threshold of about 5% of GDP.
Adjusting the average CPI target from 4.5 - 5% is necessary.
Reviewing this content, Chairman of the National Assembly's Economic Committee Vu Hong Thanh commented that in 2024, our country's socio-economic situation will continue to recover and develop positively, achieving many important and comprehensive results in all areas, achieving and exceeding all 15/15 main targets. In particular, GDP in 2024 is estimated to increase by 7.09%, among the leading groups in the world and the region.
The Economic Committee basically agrees with the targets, requirements, and economic growth scenarios for 2025 in the Government's Submission and Report.
According to the Chairman of the National Assembly's Economic Committee, submitting to the National Assembly an adjustment to increase the economic growth target for 2025 demonstrates the Government's determination and efforts in successfully implementing the socio-economic development goals for the 2021-2025 period, contributing to consolidating and creating a solid foundation to achieve double-digit growth over a long enough period, bringing our country into an era of prosperous development.
Regarding the target of an average consumer price index (CPI) growth rate of about 4.5 - 5%, the Economic Committee believes that adjusting the CPI target is necessary to create space in operating fiscal and monetary policies, supporting economic growth. However, inflation is an important indicator, directly affecting macroeconomic stability as well as people's lives and business costs. Therefore, it is recommended that the Government have solutions to control inflation in line with the growth and macroeconomic stability goals.
Regarding the proposal to adjust the targets on deficit spending and public debt, the Economic Committee recommends that the Government use resources effectively, strictly implement the provisions of the law on state budget and the law on public debt management; resolutely manage to ensure deficit spending and public debt within the scope decided by the National Assembly in Resolution No. 23/2021/QH15 and Resolution No. 159/2024/QH15, and only adjust when all solutions have been implemented and public debt safety and debt repayment capacity are ensured, especially the target of the Government's debt repayment obligations compared to total budget revenue.
